Polls vs results: how close were the 2026 polls?
In the 25 races that are called or nearly fully counted, results so far were 1.2 points more Democratic (or independent) than the final polling averages, on average. The average size of the miss was 4.4 points, and the poll leader matched the result leader in 21 of 25 races.
| Race | Final poll avg. | Result so far | Miss | Counted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Dakota Senate1 verified poll | R +8.0 | R +21.0 called | −13.0 | 99% |
| Maine Governor2 verified polls | D +6.0 | D +17.0 called | +11.0 | 97% |
| South Dakota Governor1 verified poll | R +18.0 | R +27.0 called | −9.0 | 99% |
| Texas Senate4 verified polls | D +3.4 | D +12.1 called | +8.7 | 99% |
| Texas Governor2 verified polls | R +1.0 | D +7.1 called | +8.1 | 99% |
| Nebraska Senate1 verified poll | Tied | R +6.2 called | −6.2 | 98% |
| New York Governor1 verified poll | D +14.0 | D +19.7 called | +5.7 | 95% |
| New Hampshire Senate1 verified poll | D +8.1 | D +13.8 called | +5.7 | 99% |
| Minnesota Governor1 verified poll | D +18.0 | D +12.8 called | −5.2 | 99% |
| Nebraska Governor1 verified poll | R +3.0 | R +7.9 called | −4.9 | 98% |
| North Carolina Senate1 verified poll | D +14.9 | D +19.7 called | +4.8 | 99% |
| South Carolina Senate1 verified poll | Tied | D +4.5 called | +4.5 | 100% |
| Florida Senate (special)1 verified poll | R +6.0 | R +2.9 called | +3.1 | 99% |
| Iowa Governor1 verified poll | D +8.0 | D +11.1 called | +3.1 | 99% |
| Ohio Governor2 verified polls | D +5.0 | D +7.9 called | +2.9 | 98% |
| Florida Governor1 verified poll | R +4.0 | R +1.3 called | +2.7 | 99% |
| South Carolina Governor1 verified poll | R +7.0 | R +4.4 called | +2.6 | 100% |
| Kansas Governor2 verified polls | R +1.5 | D +0.7 | +2.2 | 99% |
| Minnesota Senate2 verified polls | D +8.2 | D +10.1 called | +2.0 | 99% |
| Iowa Senate2 verified polls | D +2.5 | D +4.2 called | +1.6 | 99% |
| Michigan Governor2 verified polls | D +10.0 | D +10.8 called | +0.9 | 98% |
| Michigan Senate4 verified polls | D +7.9 | D +7.1 called | −0.8 | 98% |
| Maine Senate4 verified polls | D +5.5 | D +6.2 called | +0.7 | 97% |
| Alaska Senate1 verified poll | D +2.0 | D +1.6 | −0.4 | 86% |
| Ohio Senate (special)3 verified polls | D +5.2 | D +4.9 called | −0.3 | 98% |
| Kansas Senate3 verified polls | D +5.3 | D +5.0 called | −0.3 | 99% |
Poll average = mean of verified polls ending in the 14 days before Election Day, as published on each race page (methodology). Results are unofficial and will move as counting finishes; rows in grey are under 95% counted and not called, and are left out of the summary numbers.
Unofficial results as of Nov 12, 12:19 PM ET. Vote shares and race calls come from the Fox News Decision Desk results pages (House calls by The Associated Press, as shown by Fox News). This site does not project winners. Certified results come from each state's election office.
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