Dan Osborn vs. Pete Ricketts polls: Nebraska senate race 2026
Dan Osborn vs. Pete Ricketts · Pete Ricketts (R)
Election Day: · Nebraska state guide
Pete Ricketts won by 6.2 points · called by Fox News at Nov 4, 3:28 AM ET
Lead at Nov 3, 9:19 PM ET: I +19.7 (24% counted) → now R +6.2
Unofficial results. Vote shares and calls from the Fox News Decision Desk results page ↗; this site does not project winners. Certified results come from the state election office.
Nebraska Senate result
Pete Ricketts (Republican) won the Nebraska Senate race, according to a race call by Fox News at Nov 4, 3:28 AM ET. With 98% of the expected vote counted, Pete Ricketts had 50.1% to Dan Osborn's 43.9%, a margin of 6.2 points.
The seat was held by a Republican before the election.
The final 14-day polling average, based on 1 verified poll, was tied; the result so far is R +6.2, 6.2 points more Republican than the polls.
On election night, the first snapshot this site saved (Nov 3, 9:19 PM ET, 24% counted) showed the independent ahead by 19.7 points; the lead later changed hands, and the Republican was ahead by 6.2 points in the latest count. Early returns often contain a different mix of ballots than later ones, so movement during the count is normal.
Analysis: How Accurate Were the 2026 Polls? A Race-by-Race Check
Certified results come from the Nebraska election office. See also polls vs results and closest races.
Recent verified polling is available
1 verified poll ended in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Their simple average: Dan Osborn 49.0%, Pete Ricketts 49.0% (not a forecast).
Most recent: YouGov, field dates ending : Dan Osborn 49%, Pete Ricketts 49%.
Candidates · Ratings: Cook Likely R, Sabato Likely R · Polls and sources · Nebraska voting guide · Latest polls in all races
Ratings are forecasters' judgments, not polls. About these ratings
Candidates
Pete Ricketts
U.S. Senator since 2023
Dan Osborn
Independent; union leader, no Democrat on ballot
Candidates recorded in this dataset; confirm the complete ballot with the election authority. Poll matchups may omit other candidates.
Current 14-day average
Equal-weight arithmetic mean of 1 logged poll ending in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. No sample-size or pollster weighting.
Logged polls and sources
| Pollster / field dates | Sample / population | Dan Osborn % | Pete Ricketts % | Source / notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGovOctober 26, 2026 – October 29, 2026Included in current average | 1979LV | 49 | 49 | Original source ↗YouGov toplines: Oct 26-29, 1,979 LV; Osborn (I) 49, Ricketts 49.Method: Online |
| NPA PollingOctober 2, 2026 – October 5, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 800LV | 43 | 46 | Original source ↗NPA Polling memo: Oct 2-5, 800 LV; full-ballot results.Method: Live calls and text-to-web |
| YouGovSeptember 24, 2026 – October 3, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1809LV | 48 | 47 | Original source ↗YouGov state topline PDF confirms field dates, LV sample size and Senate/governor results.Method: Online opt-in panel; likely voter model |
Unverified and incomplete records stay visible and are explicitly excluded from the calculated average. We have not calculated an uncertainty interval for these averages. Source limitations.
Poll history
Trend of the 3 logged polls listed in the table above.
The U.S. Senate race in Nebraska has less than a one-point gap in the logged poll average in the average of 1 public poll from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Likely R; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Likely R.
- Nebraska Governor race · Pillen +3.0 in polls
- South Carolina Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- Texas Governor · Abbott +1.0 · one of the closest races
- Kansas Governor · Masterson +1.5 · one of the closest races
- Alaska Senate · Peltola +2.0 · one of the closest races
- How Accurate Were the 2026 Polls? A Race-by-Race Check · Analysis
- When Will 2026 Election Results Be Known? · Analysis
- Nebraska Senate
NYT/Siena poll of likely Nebraska voters: Senate Ricketts (R) 49%, Osborn (I) 43%; governor Pillen (R) 53%, Walz (D) 40%. Siena Research Institute ↗
Full candidate biographies, primary results and campaign history: Nebraska Senate election on Wikipedia ↗. Official candidate lists and certified results come from the Nebraska election office via vote.gov.
What do verified polls show in the 2026 Nebraska Senate race?
The U.S. Senate race in Nebraska has less than a one-point gap in the logged poll average in the average of 1 public poll from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Likely R; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Likely R. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
When is the Nebraska Senate election?
The general election is on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early and mail voting rules vary; check Nebraska's rules on vote.gov.
What time do polls close in Nebraska?
On November 3, polls in Nebraska close at 9 p.m. ET. Anyone in line at closing time can still vote. See all states on our poll closing times page.
Where can I check the poll sources?
The logged poll table below links to original releases where a source is recorded. Only verified, complete polls are included in the calculated average.
Where can I follow live Nebraska results?
Unofficial live results for this race will appear on this page and on our live results page on election night. Official results are certified by the Nebraska election office.
Voting in Nebraska
Election Day: . Confirm your registration, deadlines, voting options, polling location and sample ballot with official sources.
Verified deadlines
- Early in-person voting: · in person through November 2, 2026 · Official source ↗At the county clerk or election commissioner office.
- Voter registration deadline (online): · online (closes) · Official source ↗Must be completed before midnight.
- Voter registration deadline (mail): · mail · postmark by this date · Official source ↗Mailed registrations must be postmarked by this date; also last day at DMV.
- Voter registration deadline (in person): · in person (closes) · Official source ↗Ends 6 p.m. at the election office.
- Early voting ballot request deadline (by mail): · mail · must be received by this date · Official source ↗Application must be received by 6 p.m. for a ballot to be mailed.
- Early voting ballot return deadline: · mail, drop box or in person · must be received by this date · Official source ↗Must be in election office's possession by 8 p.m. CT / 7 p.m. MT; postmarks do not count.
Sources checked 2026-10-07. Election rules and deadlines can change; confirm details with the authority.
Add this live-updating poll widget to your article or blog. Free with the attribution link intact. Commercial licensing: contact us.
Keep this data free
Midterm Results Live is independent and takes no money from campaigns or parties. Reader support pays for hosting and data work. This is not a political contribution.
Support Midterm Results Live