Rob Sand vs. Zach Lahn polls: Iowa governor race 2026
Rob Sand vs. Zach Lahn · Open — Kim Reynolds (R) retiring
Election Day: · Iowa state guide
Rob Sand won by 11.1 points · called by Fox News at Nov 3, 11:18 PM ET
Lead at Nov 3, 9:19 PM ET: D +33.9 (14% counted) → now D +11.1
Unofficial results. Vote shares and calls from the Fox News Decision Desk results page ↗; this site does not project winners. Certified results come from the state election office.
Iowa Governor result
Rob Sand (Democrat) won the Iowa governor's race, according to a race call by Fox News at Nov 3, 11:18 PM ET. With 99% of the expected vote counted, Rob Sand had 55.5% to Zach Lahn's 44.5%, a margin of 11.1 points.
The seat was held by a Republican before the election, so this result is a change of party.
The final 14-day polling average, based on 1 verified poll, was D +8.0; the result so far is D +11.1, 3.1 points more Democratic than the polls.
On election night, the first snapshot this site saved (Nov 3, 9:19 PM ET, 14% counted) showed the Democrat ahead by 33.9 points; the lead narrowed to 11.1 points in the latest count. Early returns often contain a different mix of ballots than later ones, so movement during the count is normal.
Analysis: 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · Iowa 2026 Senate and Governor Polls · The 2026 Governor Races to Watch
Certified results come from the Iowa election office. See also polls vs results and closest races.
Recent verified polling is available
1 verified poll ended in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Their simple average: Rob Sand 51.0%, Zach Lahn 43.0% (not a forecast).
Most recent: NYT/Siena, field dates ending : Rob Sand 51%, Zach Lahn 43%.
1 logged poll is shown below but left out of averages under our methodology; the reason is listed with each poll.
As of October 7, 2026, 1 reported poll was held back from this page until it can be checked against the original release.
Candidates · Ratings: Cook Lean D, Sabato Toss-up · Polls and sources · Iowa voting guide · Latest polls in all races
Ratings are forecasters' judgments, not polls. About these ratings
Candidates
Rob Sand
State Auditor
Zach Lahn
Businessman
Candidates recorded in this dataset; confirm the complete ballot with the election authority. Poll matchups may omit other candidates.
Current 14-day average
Equal-weight arithmetic mean of 1 logged poll ending in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. No sample-size or pollster weighting.
Logged polls and sources
| Pollster / field dates | Sample / population | Rob Sand % | Zach Lahn % | Source / notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT/SienaOctober 23, 2026 – November 1, 2026Included in current average | 705LV | 51 | 43 | Original source ↗Siena release gives toplines; Oct 23-Nov 1 field dates and LV sample size from news report of the release (Irish Times, Nov 2).Sponsor: The New York Times |
| Marist PollOctober 8, 2026 – October 11, 2026Source or essential poll metadata not verified | 1100LV | 52 | 45 | Original source ↗Marist release gives likely-voter toplines but no likely-voter sample size (1,100 RV surveyed).Method: Multi-mode survey |
| Emerson College PollingOctober 5, 2026 – October 6, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 650LV | 49 | 45 | Original source ↗Emerson release confirms field dates, LV sample size and toplines.Sponsor: Nexstar MediaMethod: Mixed-mode survey of likely voters |
| Fox News Poll (Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research)September 24, 2026 – September 28, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1008LV | 53 | 44 | Original source ↗Official Fox News topline confirms field dates, LV subsample and the Senate and governor initial ballot results.Sponsor: Fox NewsMethod: Mixed-mode telephone and text-to-web; voter-file sample |
| Marist PollSeptember 17, 2026 – September 20, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1050RV | 54 | 42 | Original source ↗Senate 50/42 and governor 54/42 confirmed. Stored September 22 was release date.Method: Live phone, text and online |
Unverified and incomplete records stay visible and are explicitly excluded from the calculated average. We have not calculated an uncertainty interval for these averages. Source limitations.
Poll history
Trend of the 5 logged polls listed in the table above.
Rob Sand (D) leads Zach Lahn (R) by 8.0 points in the average of 1 public poll from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Lean D; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Toss-up.
- Iowa Senate race · Turek +2.5 in polls
- Nebraska Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- South Carolina Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- Texas Governor · Abbott +1.0 · one of the closest races
- Kansas Governor · Masterson +1.5 · one of the closest races
- 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · Analysis
- Maine and North Carolina: How Two Senate Flips Unfolded on Election Night · Analysis
Full candidate biographies, primary results and campaign history: Iowa Governor election on Wikipedia ↗. Official candidate lists and certified results come from the Iowa election office via vote.gov.
What do verified polls show in the 2026 Iowa governor race?
Rob Sand (D) leads Zach Lahn (R) by 8.0 points in the average of 1 public poll from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Lean D; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Toss-up. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
When is the Iowa governor election?
The general election is on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early and mail voting rules vary; check Iowa's rules on vote.gov.
What time do polls close in Iowa?
On November 3, polls in Iowa close at 9 p.m. ET. Anyone in line at closing time can still vote. See all states on our poll closing times page.
Where can I check the poll sources?
The logged poll table below links to original releases where a source is recorded. Only verified, complete polls are included in the calculated average.
Where can I follow live Iowa results?
Unofficial live results for this race will appear on this page and on our live results page on election night. Official results are certified by the Iowa election office.
Voting in Iowa
Election Day: . Confirm your registration, deadlines, voting options, polling location and sample ballot with official sources.
Verified deadlines
- Early in-person voting: · in person through November 2, 2026 · Official source ↗In-person absentee voting at county auditor's office.
- Voter pre-registration deadline: · online, mail or in person (closes) · Official source ↗
- Absentee ballot request deadline: · mail · must be received by this date · Official source ↗Written applications must reach county auditor by 5 p.m.
- Election Day registration: · in person · Official source ↗Register at the polls with proof of identity and residence.
- Absentee ballot return deadline: · mail or delivery · must be received by this date · Official source ↗Must reach county auditor by 8 p.m. when polls close.
Sources checked 2026-10-07. Election rules and deadlines can change; confirm details with the authority.
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