Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins polls: Maine senate race 2026
Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins · Susan Collins (R)
Election Day: · Maine state guide
Troy Jackson won by 6.2 points · called by Fox News at Nov 4, 12:21 AM ET
Lead at Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET: R +17.0 (<1% counted) → now D +6.2
Unofficial results. Vote shares and calls from the Fox News Decision Desk results page ↗; this site does not project winners. Certified results come from the state election office.
Maine Senate result
Troy Jackson (Democrat) won the Maine Senate race, according to a race call by Fox News at Nov 4, 12:21 AM ET. With 97% of the expected vote counted, Troy Jackson had 53.1% to Susan Collins's 46.9%, a margin of 6.2 points.
The seat was held by a Republican before the election, so this result is a change of party.
The final 14-day polling average, based on 4 verified polls, was D +5.5; the result so far is D +6.2, 0.7 points more Democratic than the polls.
On election night, the first snapshot this site saved (Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET, under 1% counted) showed the Republican ahead by 17.0 points; the lead later changed hands, and the Democrat was ahead by 6.2 points in the latest count. Early returns often contain a different mix of ballots than later ones, so movement during the count is normal.
Analysis: 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · How Accurate Were the 2026 Polls? A Race-by-Race Check · Maine and North Carolina: How Two Senate Flips Unfolded on Election Night
Certified results come from the Maine election office. See also polls vs results and closest races.
Recent verified polling is available
4 verified polls ended in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Their simple average: Troy Jackson 50.8%, Susan Collins 45.3% (not a forecast).
Most recent: NYT/Siena, field dates ending : Troy Jackson 51%, Susan Collins 45%.
2 logged polls are shown below but left out of averages under our methodology; the reason is listed with each poll.
As of October 7, 2026, 3 reported polls were held back from this page until they can be checked against the original release.
Candidates · Ratings: Cook Toss-up, Sabato Lean D · Polls and sources · Maine voting guide · Latest polls in all races
Ratings are forecasters' judgments, not polls. About these ratings
Candidates
Troy Jackson
Former Maine Senate President
Susan Collins
U.S. Senator since 1997
Candidates recorded in this dataset; confirm the complete ballot with the election authority. Poll matchups may omit other candidates.
Current 14-day average
Equal-weight arithmetic mean of 4 logged polls ending in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. No sample-size or pollster weighting.
Logged polls and sources
| Pollster / field dates | Sample / population | Troy Jackson % | Susan Collins % | Source / notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT/SienaOctober 23, 2026 – November 1, 2026Included in current average | 714LV | 51 | 45 | Original source ↗Siena release gives toplines; Oct 23-Nov 1 field dates and LV sample size from news report of the release (Irish Times, Nov 2).Sponsor: The New York Times |
| AtlasIntelOctober 28, 2026 – November 1, 2026Included in current average | 967LV | 53.1 | 44 | Original source ↗AtlasIntel release page gives Oct 28-Nov 1 field dates and LV sample; toplines, field dates and LV sample size from Newsweek report of the AtlasIntel release.Method: Online (random digital recruitment) |
| Data for ProgressOctober 23, 2026 – October 27, 2026Included in current average | 652LV | 50 | 45 | Original source ↗Field dates Oct 23–27 match on DFP release and Newsweek; n=652 LV per Newsweek.Sponsor: Data for ProgressMethod: Online |
| Marist PollOctober 22, 2026 – October 25, 2026Included in current average | 1449LV | 49 | 47 | Original source ↗Marist release: Oct 22-25, 1,449 RV; likely-voter toplines shown (LV n not published).Method: Multi-mode survey |
| Fox NewsOctober 16, 2026 – October 20, 2026Source or essential poll metadata not verified | 1514LV | 49 | 49 | Original source ↗News report of release gives Oct 16-20, 1,514 LV and a 49-49 tie; source page could not be opened to confirm. |
| Suffolk UniversityOctober 8, 2026 – October 11, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 500LV | 49 | 47 | Original source ↗Suffolk marginals: Oct 8-11, 500 LV; Jackson 49.0, Collins 47.0. |
| Marist PollOctober 1, 2026 – October 4, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1505RV | 51 | 47 | Original source ↗Marist release confirms field dates, RV sample size and Senate/governor toplines.Method: Multi-mode survey |
| co/efficientSeptember 28, 2026 – September 30, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1240LV | 46 | 48 | Original source ↗Senate 46/48 and governor 47/38 match original toplines.Method: Text responses and landline interviews |
| NYT/SienaStart not recorded · ends September 24, 2026Source or essential poll metadata not verified | Sample not recordedLV | 46 | 49 | Original source ↗Siena's primary release confirms this result and likely-voter population. The release page does not provide complete field dates or sample size; this record remains excluded from averages pending those details. |
| InsiderAdvantageSeptember 22, 2026 – September 23, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1200LV | 46 | 46 | Original source ↗46/46 confirmed. Recorded end date was publication date.Method: Text-to-web and online panel |
| AARP / Fabrizio Ward / Impact ResearchSeptember 20, 2026 – September 22, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 982LV | 50 | 47 | Original source ↗AARP Research/press release confirms Senate 50/47, governor 52/39, field dates and n=982 likely voters.Sponsor: AARP |
Unverified and incomplete records stay visible and are explicitly excluded from the calculated average. We have not calculated an uncertainty interval for these averages. Source limitations.
Poll history
Trend of the 11 logged polls listed in the table above.
Troy Jackson (D) leads Susan Collins (R) by 5.5 points in the average of 4 public polls from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Toss-up; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean D.
- Maine Governor race · Pingree +6.0 in polls
- Nebraska Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- South Carolina Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- Texas Governor · Abbott +1.0 · one of the closest races
- Kansas Governor · Masterson +1.5 · one of the closest races
- 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · Analysis
- How Accurate Were the 2026 Polls? A Race-by-Race Check · Analysis
Full candidate biographies, primary results and campaign history: Maine Senate election on Wikipedia ↗. Official candidate lists and certified results come from the Maine election office via vote.gov.
What do verified polls show in the 2026 Maine Senate race?
Troy Jackson (D) leads Susan Collins (R) by 5.5 points in the average of 4 public polls from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Toss-up; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean D. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
When is the Maine Senate election?
The general election is on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early and mail voting rules vary; check Maine's rules on vote.gov.
What time do polls close in Maine?
On November 3, polls in Maine close at 8 p.m. ET. Anyone in line at closing time can still vote. See all states on our poll closing times page.
Where can I check the poll sources?
The logged poll table below links to original releases where a source is recorded. Only verified, complete polls are included in the calculated average.
Where can I follow live Maine results?
Unofficial live results for this race will appear on this page and on our live results page on election night. Official results are certified by the Maine election office.
Voting in Maine
Election Day: . Confirm your registration, deadlines, voting options, polling location and sample ballot with official sources.
Verified deadlines
- In-person absentee (early) voting at town or city hall: · in person through October 29, 2026 · Official source ↗No excuse needed.
- Voter registration deadline (online by 5 p.m.; mail received): · online or mail · Official source ↗You can still register in person at your town office or at the polls.
- Last day to request a no-excuse absentee ballot: · request (closes) · Official source ↗
- Election Day registration: · in person · Official source ↗
- Absentee ballot must arrive: · mail or delivery · must be received by this date · Official source ↗Must arrive by 8 p.m.; a postmark does not count.
Sources checked 2026-10-07. Election rules and deadlines can change; confirm details with the authority.
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