Dan Ahlers vs. Larry Rhoden polls: South Dakota governor race 2026
Dan Ahlers vs. Larry Rhoden · Larry Rhoden (R)
Election Day: · South Dakota state guide
Larry Rhoden won by 27.0 points · called by Fox News at Nov 3, 11:14 PM ET
Lead at Nov 3, 9:19 PM ET: D +18.2 (3% counted) → now R +27.0
Unofficial results. Vote shares and calls from the Fox News Decision Desk results page ↗; this site does not project winners. Certified results come from the state election office.
South Dakota Governor result
Larry Rhoden (Republican) won the South Dakota governor's race, according to a race call by Fox News at Nov 3, 11:14 PM ET. With 99% of the expected vote counted, Larry Rhoden had 63.5% to Dan Ahlers's 36.5%, a margin of 27.0 points.
The seat was held by a Republican before the election.
The final 14-day polling average, based on 1 verified poll, was R +18.0; the result so far is R +27.0, 9.0 points more Republican than the polls.
On election night, the first snapshot this site saved (Nov 3, 9:19 PM ET, 3% counted) showed the Democrat ahead by 18.2 points; the lead later changed hands, and the Republican was ahead by 27.0 points in the latest count. Early returns often contain a different mix of ballots than later ones, so movement during the count is normal.
Analysis: How Accurate Were the 2026 Polls? A Race-by-Race Check · South Dakota and California: What One Recent Poll Can and Cannot Tell You
Certified results come from the South Dakota election office. See also polls vs results and closest races.
Recent verified polling is available
1 verified poll ended in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Their simple average: Dan Ahlers 38.0%, Larry Rhoden 56.0% (not a forecast).
Most recent: Emerson College Polling, field dates ending : Dan Ahlers 38%, Larry Rhoden 56%.
Candidates · Ratings: Cook Solid R, Sabato Safe R · Polls and sources · South Dakota voting guide · Latest polls in all races
Ratings are forecasters' judgments, not polls. About these ratings
Candidates
Dan Ahlers
Former state senator
Larry Rhoden
Governor since 2025
Candidates recorded in this dataset; confirm the complete ballot with the election authority. Poll matchups may omit other candidates.
Current 14-day average
Equal-weight arithmetic mean of 1 logged poll ending in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. No sample-size or pollster weighting.
Logged polls and sources
| Pollster / field dates | Sample / population | Dan Ahlers % | Larry Rhoden % | Source / notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College PollingOctober 19, 2026 – October 21, 2026Included in current average | 803LV | 38 | 56 | Original source ↗Emerson release: Oct 19-21, 803 LV; initial ballot without leaners.Sponsor: KELOLAND |
Unverified and incomplete records stay visible and are explicitly excluded from the calculated average. We have not calculated an uncertainty interval for these averages. Source limitations.
Poll history
Trend of the 1 logged poll listed in the table above.
Larry Rhoden (R) leads Dan Ahlers (D) by 18.0 points in the average of 1 public poll from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Solid R; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Safe R.
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- 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · Analysis
Full candidate biographies, primary results and campaign history: South Dakota Governor election on Wikipedia ↗. Official candidate lists and certified results come from the South Dakota election office via vote.gov.
What do verified polls show in the 2026 South Dakota governor race?
Larry Rhoden (R) leads Dan Ahlers (D) by 18.0 points in the average of 1 public poll from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Solid R; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Safe R. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
When is the South Dakota governor election?
The general election is on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early and mail voting rules vary; check South Dakota's rules on vote.gov.
What time do polls close in South Dakota?
On November 3, polls in South Dakota close at 8 p.m. ET in the east and 9 p.m. ET in the west. Anyone in line at closing time can still vote. See all states on our poll closing times page.
Where can I check the poll sources?
The logged poll table below links to original releases where a source is recorded. Only verified, complete polls are included in the calculated average.
Where can I follow live South Dakota results?
Unofficial live results for this race will appear on this page and on our live results page on election night. Official results are certified by the South Dakota election office.
Voting in South Dakota
Election Day: . Confirm your registration, deadlines, voting options, polling location and sample ballot with official sources.
Verified deadlines
- Absentee voting (by mail or in person at county auditor): · mail or in person through November 2, 2026 · Official source ↗
- Voter registration deadline: · must be received by this date · Official source ↗By 5 p.m. local time.
- Absentee ballot request deadline: (closes) · Official source ↗Before 5 p.m. local time.
Not verified in this guide: Absentee ballot return deadline.
Sources checked 2026-10-07. Election rules and deadlines can change; confirm details with the authority.
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