Peggy Flanagan vs. Michele Tafoya polls: Minnesota senate race 2026
Peggy Flanagan vs. Michele Tafoya · Open — Tina Smith (D) retiring
Election Day: · Minnesota state guide
Peggy Flanagan won by 10.1 points · called by Fox News at Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET
Lead at Nov 3, 9:19 PM ET: R +34.4 (<1% counted) → now D +10.1
Unofficial results. Vote shares and calls from the Fox News Decision Desk results page ↗; this site does not project winners. Certified results come from the state election office.
Minnesota Senate result
Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) won the Minnesota Senate race, according to a race call by Fox News at Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET. With 99% of the expected vote counted, Peggy Flanagan had 53.7% to Michele Tafoya's 43.6%, a margin of 10.1 points.
The seat was held by a Democrat before the election.
The final 14-day polling average, based on 2 verified polls, was D +8.2; the result so far is D +10.1, 2.0 points more Democratic than the polls.
On election night, the first snapshot this site saved (Nov 3, 9:19 PM ET, under 1% counted) showed the Republican ahead by 34.4 points; the lead later changed hands, and the Democrat was ahead by 10.1 points in the latest count. Early returns often contain a different mix of ballots than later ones, so movement during the count is normal.
Analysis: Florida, Minnesota and South Carolina: Six Races in One Set of NYT/Siena Polls · The 2026 Senate Math: What Each Party Needs on November 3
Certified results come from the Minnesota election office. See also polls vs results and closest races.
Recent verified polling is available
2 verified polls ended in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Their simple average: Peggy Flanagan 51.0%, Michele Tafoya 42.9% (not a forecast).
Most recent: AtlasIntel, field dates ending : Peggy Flanagan 48.1%, Michele Tafoya 45.7%.
As of October 7, 2026, 1 reported poll was held back from this page until it can be checked against the original release.
Candidates · Ratings: Cook Lean D, Sabato Likely D · Polls and sources · Minnesota voting guide · Latest polls in all races
Ratings are forecasters' judgments, not polls. About these ratings
Candidates
Peggy Flanagan
Lieutenant Governor
Michele Tafoya
Former sports broadcaster
Candidates recorded in this dataset; confirm the complete ballot with the election authority. Poll matchups may omit other candidates.
Current 14-day average
Equal-weight arithmetic mean of 2 logged polls ending in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. No sample-size or pollster weighting.
Logged polls and sources
| Pollster / field dates | Sample / population | Peggy Flanagan % | Michele Tafoya % | Source / notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntelOctober 28, 2026 – November 1, 2026Included in current average | 2133LV | 48.1 | 45.7 | Original source ↗toplines, field dates and LV sample size from Newsweek report of the AtlasIntel release.Method: Online (random digital recruitment) |
| NYT/SienaOctober 19, 2026 – October 26, 2026Included in current average | 752LV | 54 | 40 | Original source ↗Siena release gives toplines; Oct 19-26 field dates and LV sample size from news report of the release.Sponsor: The New York Times |
| InsiderAdvantageSeptember 28, 2026 – September 29, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1200LV | 46 | 45 | Original source ↗46/45 confirmed. Original release says 1200 LV, despite secondary listings of 1000.Method: Text-to-web and online panel |
Unverified and incomplete records stay visible and are explicitly excluded from the calculated average. We have not calculated an uncertainty interval for these averages. Source limitations.
Poll history
Trend of the 3 logged polls listed in the table above.
Peggy Flanagan (D) leads Michele Tafoya (R) by 8.2 points in the average of 2 public polls from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Lean D; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Likely D.
- Minnesota Governor race · Klobuchar +18.0 in polls
- Nebraska Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- South Carolina Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- Texas Governor · Abbott +1.0 · one of the closest races
- Kansas Governor · Masterson +1.5 · one of the closest races
- Florida, Minnesota and South Carolina: Six Races in One Set of NYT/Siena Polls · Analysis
- The 2026 Senate Math: What Each Party Needs on November 3 · Analysis
Full candidate biographies, primary results and campaign history: Minnesota Senate election on Wikipedia ↗. Official candidate lists and certified results come from the Minnesota election office via vote.gov.
What do verified polls show in the 2026 Minnesota Senate race?
Peggy Flanagan (D) leads Michele Tafoya (R) by 8.2 points in the average of 2 public polls from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Lean D; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Likely D. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
When is the Minnesota Senate election?
The general election is on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early and mail voting rules vary; check Minnesota's rules on vote.gov.
What time do polls close in Minnesota?
On November 3, polls in Minnesota close at 9 p.m. ET. Anyone in line at closing time can still vote. See all states on our poll closing times page.
Where can I check the poll sources?
The logged poll table below links to original releases where a source is recorded. Only verified, complete polls are included in the calculated average.
Where can I follow live Minnesota results?
Unofficial live results for this race will appear on this page and on our live results page on election night. Official results are certified by the Minnesota election office.
Voting in Minnesota
Election Day: . Confirm your registration, deadlines, voting options, polling location and sample ballot with official sources.
Verified deadlines
- Absentee voting opens (mail or in person): · mail or in person (opens) · Official source ↗
- Pre-registration deadline (online by 11:59 p.m.; paper received by 5 p.m.): · online or paper · Official source ↗You can still register in person when voting early or on Election Day.
- Early in-person voting (direct balloting): · in person through November 2, 2026 · Official source ↗
- Election Day registration: · in person at your polling place · Official source ↗
- Mail/absentee ballot must arrive: · mail or hand delivery · must be received by this date · Official source ↗A postmark does not count. Hand delivery by yourself until 5 p.m.
Not verified in this guide: Legal deadline to request a mail ballot (apply early).
Sources checked 2026-10-07. Election rules and deadlines can change; confirm details with the authority.
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