Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted polls: Ohio senate race 2026
Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted · Jon Husted (R), appointed
Election Day: · Ohio state guide
Sherrod Brown won by 4.9 points · called by Fox News at Nov 3, 11:14 PM ET
Lead at Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET: D +15.7 (37% counted) → now D +4.9
Unofficial results. Vote shares and calls from the Fox News Decision Desk results page ↗; this site does not project winners. Certified results come from the state election office.
Ohio Senate special election result
Sherrod Brown (Democrat) won the Ohio Senate special election, according to a race call by Fox News at Nov 3, 11:14 PM ET. With 98% of the expected vote counted, Sherrod Brown had 50.0% to Jon Husted's 45.1%, a margin of 4.9 points.
The seat was held by a Republican before the election, so this result is a change of party.
The final 14-day polling average, based on 3 verified polls, was D +5.2; the result so far is D +4.9, close to the polls.
On election night, the first snapshot this site saved (Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET, 37% counted) showed the Democrat ahead by 15.7 points; the lead narrowed to 4.9 points in the latest count. Early returns often contain a different mix of ballots than later ones, so movement during the count is normal.
Analysis: 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · How Accurate Were the 2026 Polls? A Race-by-Race Check · Ohio 2026 Results: Brown and Acton Win, Close to Their Final Polls
Certified results come from the Ohio election office. See also polls vs results and closest races.
Recent verified polling is available
3 verified polls ended in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Their simple average: Sherrod Brown 49.1%, Jon Husted 44.0% (not a forecast).
Most recent: NYT/Siena, field dates ending : Sherrod Brown 49%, Jon Husted 44%.
2 logged polls are shown below but left out of averages under our methodology; the reason is listed with each poll.
As of October 7, 2026, 5 reported polls were held back from this page until they can be checked against the original release.
Candidates · Ratings: Cook Toss-up, Sabato Lean D · Polls and sources · Ohio voting guide · Latest polls in all races
Ratings are forecasters' judgments, not polls. About these ratings
Candidates
Sherrod Brown
Former U.S. Senator
Jon Husted
Appointed senator; former Lt. Governor
Candidates recorded in this dataset; confirm the complete ballot with the election authority. Poll matchups may omit other candidates.
Current 14-day average
Equal-weight arithmetic mean of 3 logged polls ending in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. No sample-size or pollster weighting.
Logged polls and sources
| Pollster / field dates | Sample / population | Sherrod Brown % | Jon Husted % | Source / notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT/SienaOctober 23, 2026 – November 1, 2026Included in current average | 717LV | 49 | 44 | Original source ↗Siena release gives toplines; Oct 23-Nov 1 field dates and LV sample size from news report of the release (Irish Times, Nov 2).Sponsor: The New York Times |
| AtlasIntelOctober 28, 2026 – November 1, 2026Included in current average | 1801LV | 51.4 | 43.9 | Original source ↗AtlasIntel release page gives Oct 28-Nov 1 field dates and LV sample; toplines, field dates and LV sample size from Newsweek report of the AtlasIntel release.Method: Online (random digital recruitment) |
| Suffolk UniversityOctober 21, 2026 – October 26, 2026Included in current average | 500LV | 47 | 44 | Original source ↗Suffolk release PDF: Oct 21-26, 500 LV; Brown 47, Husted 44.Sponsor: USA TODAY Network Ohio |
| Marist PollOctober 15, 2026 – October 18, 2026Source or essential poll metadata not verified | 1176LV | 48 | 44 | Original source ↗Marist release gives likely-voter toplines but no likely-voter sample size (weight applied to 1,176 RV).Method: Multi-mode survey |
| YouGovSeptember 18, 2026 – September 30, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 3780LV | 49 | 45 | Original source ↗YouGov state topline PDF confirms field dates, LV sample size and Senate/governor results.Method: Online opt-in panel; likely voter model |
| InsiderAdvantageSeptember 28, 2026 – September 29, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1200LV | 44 | 43 | Original source ↗44/43 confirmed by original release.Method: Text-to-web and online panel |
| Marist PollSeptember 24, 2026 – September 27, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1298RV | 51 | 43 | Original source ↗Senate 51/43 and governor 50/44 confirmed.RVMethod: Live phone, text and online |
| Big Data PollSeptember 26, 2026 – September 27, 2026Source or essential poll metadata not verified | 680LV | 45.5 | 41.6 | Original source ↗Senate topline is on the Ohio release, but its methods paragraph incorrectly says Texas; the Ohio governor result could not be independently verified. Keep both race entries out until the release discrepancy and governor result are resolved.Sponsor: Public Polling Project (crowdfunded); not campaign-affiliated per pollsterMethod: 60% live-agent phone; 40% online |
| The Trafalgar GroupSeptember 14, 2026 – September 16, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1085LV | 45.4 | 41.5 | Original source ↗Original crosstabs provide 45.4/41.5; stored 45/42 were rounded. Field end September 16. |
Unverified and incomplete records stay visible and are explicitly excluded from the calculated average. We have not calculated an uncertainty interval for these averages. Source limitations.
Poll history
Trend of the 9 logged polls listed in the table above.
Sherrod Brown (D) leads Jon Husted (R) by 5.2 points in the average of 3 public polls from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Toss-up; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean D.
- Ohio Governor race · Acton +5.0 in polls
- Nebraska Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- South Carolina Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- Texas Governor · Abbott +1.0 · one of the closest races
- Kansas Governor · Masterson +1.5 · one of the closest races
- 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · Analysis
- How Accurate Were the 2026 Polls? A Race-by-Race Check · Analysis
Full candidate biographies, primary results and campaign history: Ohio (special) Senate election on Wikipedia ↗. Official candidate lists and certified results come from the Ohio election office via vote.gov.
What do verified polls show in the 2026 Ohio Senate race?
Sherrod Brown (D) leads Jon Husted (R) by 5.2 points in the average of 3 public polls from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Toss-up; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean D. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
When is the Ohio Senate election?
The general election is on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early and mail voting rules vary; check Ohio's rules on vote.gov.
What time do polls close in Ohio?
On November 3, polls in Ohio close at 7:30 p.m. ET. Anyone in line at closing time can still vote. See all states on our poll closing times page.
Where can I check the poll sources?
The logged poll table below links to original releases where a source is recorded. Only verified, complete polls are included in the calculated average.
Where can I follow live Ohio results?
Unofficial live results for this race will appear on this page and on our live results page on election night. Official results are certified by the Ohio election office.
Voting in Ohio
Election Day: . Confirm your registration, deadlines, voting options, polling location and sample ballot with official sources.
Verified deadlines
- Voter registration deadline: · online, mail or in person (closes) · Official source ↗Boards of elections and SOS office open until 9 p.m.
- Early in-person voting: · in person through November 1, 2026 · Official source ↗Last day Sun Nov 1, 1-5 p.m.; absentee voting also begins Oct 6.
- Absentee ballot application deadline: · mail · must be received by this date · Official source ↗Application must reach county board by 8:30 p.m.
- Absentee ballot return deadline: · mail or in person · must be received by this date · Official source ↗Non-UOCAVA ballots must be received by county board by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day.
Sources checked 2026-10-07. Election rules and deadlines can change; confirm details with the authority.
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