Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall polls: Kansas senate race 2026
Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall · Roger Marshall (R)
Election Day: · Kansas state guide
Adam Hamilton won by 5.0 points · called by Fox News at Nov 3, 11:22 PM ET
Lead at Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET: D +21.2 (16% counted) → now D +5.0
Unofficial results. Vote shares and calls from the Fox News Decision Desk results page ↗; this site does not project winners. Certified results come from the state election office.
Kansas Senate result
Adam Hamilton (Democrat) won the Kansas Senate race, according to a race call by Fox News at Nov 3, 11:22 PM ET. With 99% of the expected vote counted, Adam Hamilton had 51.0% to Roger Marshall's 46.0%, a margin of 5.0 points.
The seat was held by a Republican before the election, so this result is a change of party.
The final 14-day polling average, based on 3 verified polls, was D +5.3; the result so far is D +5.0, close to the polls.
On election night, the first snapshot this site saved (Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET, 16% counted) showed the Democrat ahead by 21.2 points; the lead narrowed to 5.0 points in the latest count. Early returns often contain a different mix of ballots than later ones, so movement during the count is normal.
Analysis: 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · How Accurate Were the 2026 Polls? A Race-by-Race Check · Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina: The Senate Flips Fewer People Expected
Certified results come from the Kansas election office. See also polls vs results and closest races.
Recent verified polling is available
3 verified polls ended in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Their simple average: Adam Hamilton 50.0%, Roger Marshall 44.6% (not a forecast).
Most recent: NYT/Siena, field dates ending : Adam Hamilton 49%, Roger Marshall 44%.
Candidates · Ratings: Cook Lean R, Sabato Lean R · Polls and sources · Kansas voting guide · Latest polls in all races
Ratings are forecasters' judgments, not polls. About these ratings
Candidates
Adam Hamilton
Roger Marshall
U.S. Senator since 2021
Candidates recorded in this dataset; confirm the complete ballot with the election authority. Poll matchups may omit other candidates.
Current 14-day average
Equal-weight arithmetic mean of 3 logged polls ending in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. No sample-size or pollster weighting.
Logged polls and sources
| Pollster / field dates | Sample / population | Adam Hamilton % | Roger Marshall % | Source / notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT/SienaOctober 23, 2026 – November 1, 2026Included in current average | 736LV | 49 | 44 | Original source ↗Siena release gives toplines; Oct 23-Nov 1 field dates and LV sample size from news report of the release (Irish Times, Nov 2).Sponsor: The New York Times |
| AtlasIntelOctober 28, 2026 – November 1, 2026Included in current average | 2038LV | 51.9 | 44.9 | Original source ↗toplines, field dates and LV sample size from Newsweek report of the AtlasIntel release.Method: Online (random digital recruitment) |
| Emerson College PollingOctober 26, 2026 – October 28, 2026Included in current average | 800LV | 49 | 45 | Original source ↗Emerson release: Oct 26-28, 800 LV; Hamilton 49, Marshall 45, Graham (L) 3. |
| InsiderAdvantageOctober 9, 2026 – October 10, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1200LV | 48 | 47 | Original source ↗Method: Mixed-mode text and online panel |
| YouGovSeptember 24, 2026 – October 4, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 2255LV | 48 | 45 | Original source ↗YouGov state topline PDF confirms field dates, LV sample size and Senate/governor results.Method: Online opt-in panel; likely voter model |
| Emerson College PollingSeptember 15, 2026 – September 16, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 750LV | 45 | 43 | Original source ↗Senate 45/43 and governor 44/51 confirmed. Stored September 18 was release date.Sponsor: Nexstar MediaMethod: Text-to-web and online panel |
Unverified and incomplete records stay visible and are explicitly excluded from the calculated average. We have not calculated an uncertainty interval for these averages. Source limitations.
Poll history
Trend of the 6 logged polls listed in the table above.
Adam Hamilton (D) leads Roger Marshall (R) by 5.3 points in the average of 3 public polls from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Lean R; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean R.
- Kansas Governor race · Masterson +1.5 in polls
- Nebraska Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- South Carolina Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- Texas Governor · Abbott +1.0 · one of the closest races
- Kansas Governor · Masterson +1.5 · one of the closest races
- 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · Analysis
- How Accurate Were the 2026 Polls? A Race-by-Race Check · Analysis
Full candidate biographies, primary results and campaign history: Kansas Senate election on Wikipedia ↗. Official candidate lists and certified results come from the Kansas election office via vote.gov.
What do verified polls show in the 2026 Kansas Senate race?
Adam Hamilton (D) leads Roger Marshall (R) by 5.3 points in the average of 3 public polls from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Lean R; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean R. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
When is the Kansas Senate election?
The general election is on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early and mail voting rules vary; check Kansas's rules on vote.gov.
What time do polls close in Kansas?
On November 3, polls in Kansas close at 8 p.m. ET in most of the state and 9 p.m. ET in the west. Anyone in line at closing time can still vote. See all states on our poll closing times page.
Where can I check the poll sources?
The logged poll table below links to original releases where a source is recorded. Only verified, complete polls are included in the calculated average.
Where can I follow live Kansas results?
Unofficial live results for this race will appear on this page and on our live results page on election night. Official results are certified by the Kansas election office.
Voting in Kansas
Election Day: . Confirm your registration, deadlines, voting options, polling location and sample ballot with official sources.
Verified deadlines
- Voter registration deadline: · Official source ↗Also the last day to update your name or address.
- Advance voting begins: · by mail and in person (opens) · Official source ↗Mail ballots begin going out; counties may open in-person advance voting.
- In-person advance voting open in every county: · in person (opens) · Official source ↗
- Mail ballot must arrive: · mail · must be received by this date · Official source ↗New for 2026: mail ballots must arrive by Election Day.
Not verified in this guide: Deadline to apply for a mail ballot; Last day of in-person advance voting.
Sources checked 2026-10-07. Election rules and deadlines can change; confirm details with the authority.
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