Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan polls: Alaska senate race 2026
Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan · Dan Sullivan (R)
Election Day: · Alaska state guide
Mary Peltola leads by 1.6 points
Lead at Nov 4, 1:12 AM ET: D +11.3 (22% counted) → now D +1.6
Unofficial results. Vote shares and calls from the Fox News Decision Desk results page ↗; this site does not project winners. Certified results come from the state election office.
Alaska Senate result
The Alaska Senate race had not been called in the latest results on this site. With 86% of the expected vote counted, Mary Peltola (Democrat) led Dan Sullivan by 1.6 points, 48.9% to 47.3%.
The seat was held by a Republican before the election, so this lead would be a change of party.
The final 14-day polling average, based on 1 verified poll, was D +2.0; the result so far is D +1.6, close to the polls.
On election night, the first snapshot this site saved (Nov 4, 1:12 AM ET, 22% counted) showed the Democrat ahead by 11.3 points; the lead narrowed to 1.6 points in the latest count. Early returns often contain a different mix of ballots than later ones, so movement during the count is normal.
Analysis: 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · Alaska 2026: How to Read Ranked-Choice Polls, and What the Repeal Measure Would Change · The 2026 Senate Math: What Each Party Needs on November 3
Certified results come from the Alaska election office. See also polls vs results and closest races.
Recent verified polling is available
1 verified poll ended in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Their simple average: Mary Peltola 48.0%, Dan Sullivan 46.0% (not a forecast).
Most recent: NYT/Siena, field dates ending : Mary Peltola 48%, Dan Sullivan 46%.
3 logged polls are shown below but left out of averages under our methodology; the reason is listed with each poll.
As of October 7, 2026, 2 reported polls were held back from this page until they can be checked against the original release.
Candidates · Ratings: Cook Toss-up, Sabato Toss-up · Polls and sources · Alaska voting guide · Latest polls in all races
Ratings are forecasters' judgments, not polls. About these ratings
Candidates
Mary Peltola
Former U.S. Representative
Dan Sullivan
U.S. Senator since 2015
Candidates recorded in this dataset; confirm the complete ballot with the election authority. Poll matchups may omit other candidates.
Current 14-day average
Equal-weight arithmetic mean of 1 logged poll ending in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. No sample-size or pollster weighting.
Logged polls and sources
| Pollster / field dates | Sample / population | Mary Peltola % | Dan Sullivan % | Source / notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT/SienaOctober 23, 2026 – November 1, 2026Included in current average | 610LV | 48 | 46 | Original source ↗Siena release gives toplines; Oct 23-Nov 1 field dates and LV sample size from news report of the release (Irish Times, Nov 2).Sponsor: The New York Times |
| Data for ProgressOctober 8, 2026 – October 16, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 694LV | 51 | 49 | Original source ↗Simulated final ranked-choice round Peltola 51, Sullivan 49 (first choice 47-44); excluded from the first-choice average.Method: SMS and web panel |
| InsiderAdvantageOctober 9, 2026 – October 10, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1200LV | 50 | 48 | Original source ↗Ranked-choice (final round) result Peltola 50, Sullivan 48; excluded from the first-choice average.Method: Mixed-mode text and online panel |
| The Trafalgar GroupSeptember 22, 2026 – September 24, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1079LV | 45.5 | 46.8 | Original source ↗Original crosstabs provide decimals 45.5/46.8; recorded 46/47 were rounded. Original field end September 24. |
| co/efficientSeptember 14, 2026 – September 17, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 799LV | 46 | 49 | Original source ↗Recorded 46/49 is the alternate two-candidate question; the initial ballot is 46/48. Keep this identified variant outside the general-ballot average.Method: Text responses and landline interviews |
Unverified and incomplete records stay visible and are explicitly excluded from the calculated average. We have not calculated an uncertainty interval for these averages. Source limitations.
Poll history
Trend of the 5 logged polls listed in the table above.
Mary Peltola (D) leads Dan Sullivan (R) by 2.0 points in the average of 1 public poll from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Toss-up; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Toss-up.
- Alaska Governor race · Likely R
- Nebraska Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- South Carolina Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- Texas Governor · Abbott +1.0 · one of the closest races
- Kansas Governor · Masterson +1.5 · one of the closest races
- 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · Analysis
- Alaska 2026: How to Read Ranked-Choice Polls, and What the Repeal Measure Would Change · Analysis
Full candidate biographies, primary results and campaign history: Alaska Senate election on Wikipedia ↗. Official candidate lists and certified results come from the Alaska election office via vote.gov.
What do verified polls show in the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
Mary Peltola (D) leads Dan Sullivan (R) by 2.0 points in the average of 1 public poll from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Toss-up; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Toss-up. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
When is the Alaska Senate election?
The general election is on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early and mail voting rules vary; check Alaska's rules on vote.gov.
What time do polls close in Alaska?
On November 3, polls in Alaska close at midnight ET in most of the state and 1 a.m. ET (Nov. 4) in the Aleutians. Anyone in line at closing time can still vote. See all states on our poll closing times page.
Where can I check the poll sources?
The logged poll table below links to original releases where a source is recorded. Only verified, complete polls are included in the calculated average.
Where can I follow live Alaska results?
Unofficial live results for this race will appear on this page and on our live results page on election night. Official results are certified by the Alaska election office.
Voting in Alaska
Election Day: . Confirm your registration, deadlines, voting options, polling location and sample ballot with official sources.
Verified deadlines
- Register or update registration: · online, mail or in person · Official source ↗Sunday deadline. State absentee guidance says registration must be postmarked or received 30 days before Election Day.
- Early and absentee in-person voting begins: · in person (opens) · Official source ↗Location schedules vary; consult the Division's location list.
- Absentee by-mail application must arrive: · mail ballot request · must be received by this date · Official source ↗
- Return a mailed absentee ballot: · mail · postmark by this date · Official source ↗Postmarked or received by Election Day; hand delivery to a voting location by 8 p.m. Check later receipt rules with the authority.
Not verified in this guide: Final mail receipt date not independently verified here..
Sources checked 2026-10-07. Election rules and deadlines can change; confirm details with the authority.
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