Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers polls: Michigan senate race 2026
Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers · Open — Gary Peters (D) retiring
Election Day: · Michigan state guide
Abdul El-Sayed won by 7.1 points · called by Fox News at Nov 4, 1:50 AM ET
Lead at Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET: D +14.6 (10% counted) → now D +7.1
Unofficial results. Vote shares and calls from the Fox News Decision Desk results page ↗; this site does not project winners. Certified results come from the state election office.
Michigan Senate result
Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) won the Michigan Senate race, according to a race call by Fox News at Nov 4, 1:50 AM ET. With 98% of the expected vote counted, Abdul El-Sayed had 52.5% to Mike Rogers's 45.5%, a margin of 7.1 points.
The seat was held by a Democrat before the election.
The final 14-day polling average, based on 4 verified polls, was D +7.9; the result so far is D +7.1, 0.8 points more Republican than the polls.
On election night, the first snapshot this site saved (Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET, 10% counted) showed the Democrat ahead by 14.6 points; the lead narrowed to 7.1 points in the latest count. Early returns often contain a different mix of ballots than later ones, so movement during the count is normal.
Analysis: 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · How Accurate Were the 2026 Polls? A Race-by-Race Check · After Election Day 2026: What the Canvass and Certification Steps Mean
Certified results come from the Michigan election office. See also polls vs results and closest races.
Recent verified polling is available
4 verified polls ended in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Their simple average: Abdul El-Sayed 52.2%, Mike Rogers 44.4% (not a forecast).
Most recent: NYT/Siena, field dates ending : Abdul El-Sayed 53%, Mike Rogers 42%.
4 logged polls are shown below but left out of averages under our methodology; the reason is listed with each poll.
As of October 7, 2026, 5 reported polls were held back from this page until they can be checked against the original release.
Candidates · Ratings: Cook Toss-up, Sabato Lean D · Polls and sources · Michigan voting guide · Latest polls in all races
Ratings are forecasters' judgments, not polls. About these ratings
Candidates
Abdul El-Sayed
Physician; former Detroit health director
Mike Rogers
Former U.S. Representative
Candidates recorded in this dataset; confirm the complete ballot with the election authority. Poll matchups may omit other candidates.
Current 14-day average
Equal-weight arithmetic mean of 4 logged polls ending in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. No sample-size or pollster weighting.
Logged polls and sources
| Pollster / field dates | Sample / population | Abdul El-Sayed % | Mike Rogers % | Source / notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT/SienaOctober 23, 2026 – November 1, 2026Included in current average | 1011LV | 53 | 42 | Original source ↗Siena release gives toplines; Oct 23-Nov 1 field dates and LV sample size from news report of the release (Irish Times, Nov 2).Sponsor: The New York Times |
| AtlasIntelOctober 28, 2026 – November 1, 2026Included in current average | 1316LV | 53.5 | 46.4 | Original source ↗toplines, field dates and LV sample size from Newsweek report of the AtlasIntel release.Method: Online (random digital recruitment) |
| Mitchell ResearchOctober 26, 2026 – October 27, 2026Included in current average | 636LV | 51 | 44 | Original source ↗CBS Detroit report: Oct 26-27, 636 LV; El-Sayed 51, Rogers 44.Sponsor: CBS DetroitMethod: Online panel and text-to-web |
| Glengariff GroupOctober 19, 2026 – October 22, 2026Included in current average | 600LV | 51.4 | 45.1 | Original source ↗WDIV report: Oct 19-22, 600 LV; El-Sayed 51.4, Rogers 45.1.Sponsor: WDIV/Detroit NewsMethod: Live interviewer phone (85% cell) |
| Marist PollOctober 15, 2026 – October 18, 2026Source or essential poll metadata not verified | 1185LV | 50 | 48 | Original source ↗Marist release gives likely-voter toplines but no likely-voter sample size (weight applied to 1,185 RV).Method: Multi-mode survey |
| InsiderAdvantageOctober 9, 2026 – October 10, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1200LV | 48 | 46 | Original source ↗Method: Mixed-mode text and online panel |
| YouGovSeptember 22, 2026 – October 4, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 3949LV | 49 | 48 | Original source ↗YouGov state topline PDF confirms field dates, LV sample size and Senate/governor results.Method: Online opt-in panel; likely voter model |
| The Trafalgar GroupSeptember 28, 2026 – September 30, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1085LV | 46.9 | 45.1 | Original source ↗Original crosstabs confirm dates and decimals. |
| Beacon Research / Shaw & Company ResearchSeptember 24, 2026 – September 28, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1028LV | 50 | 49 | Original source ↗Reported LV subsample, dates and results match; full sample is 1,203 registered voters.Sponsor: Fox NewsMethod: Live phone and text-to-web |
| Marist PollSeptember 24, 2026 – September 27, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1235RV | 51 | 44 | Original source ↗Senate 51/44 and governor 53/41 confirmed.RVMethod: Live phone, text and online |
| Big Data PollSeptember 22, 2026 – September 24, 2026Campaign or party-sponsored internal poll excluded | 678LV | 46.7 | 42.1 | Original source ↗Original release distinguishes the LV initial ballot from RV and leaner results; values corrected to LV initial-ballot result.Sponsor: Public Polling Project (crowdfunded); not campaign-affiliated per pollsterMethod: 60% live-agent phone; 40% online |
| NYT/SienaStart not recorded · ends September 24, 2026Source or essential poll metadata not verified | Sample not recordedLV | 49 | 44 | Original source ↗Siena's primary release confirms this result and likely-voter population. The release page does not provide complete field dates or sample size; this record remains excluded from averages pending those details. |
| co/efficientSeptember 21, 2026 – September 23, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 843LV | 45 | 45 | Original source ↗Senate 45/45 and governor 47/44 match the original general-ballot questions.Method: Text responses and landline interviews |
| co/efficientSeptember 21, 2026 – September 23, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 843LV | 50 | 50 | Original source ↗50/50 is an alternate question from the same 843-person release as the 45/45 entry, not a separate September 22 poll. Exclude to prevent double-counting.Method: Text responses and landline interviews |
Unverified and incomplete records stay visible and are explicitly excluded from the calculated average. We have not calculated an uncertainty interval for these averages. Source limitations.
Poll history
Trend of the 14 logged polls listed in the table above.
Abdul El-Sayed (D) leads Mike Rogers (R) by 7.9 points in the average of 4 public polls from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Toss-up; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean D.
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- 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · Analysis
- How Accurate Were the 2026 Polls? A Race-by-Race Check · Analysis
Full candidate biographies, primary results and campaign history: Michigan Senate election on Wikipedia ↗. Official candidate lists and certified results come from the Michigan election office via vote.gov.
What do verified polls show in the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
Abdul El-Sayed (D) leads Mike Rogers (R) by 7.9 points in the average of 4 public polls from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Toss-up; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean D. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
When is the Michigan Senate election?
The general election is on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early and mail voting rules vary; check Michigan's rules on vote.gov.
What time do polls close in Michigan?
On November 3, polls in Michigan close at 8 p.m. ET in most of the state and 9 p.m. ET in the Upper Peninsula west. Anyone in line at closing time can still vote. See all states on our poll closing times page.
Where can I check the poll sources?
The logged poll table below links to original releases where a source is recorded. Only verified, complete polls are included in the calculated average.
Where can I follow live Michigan results?
Unofficial live results for this race will appear on this page and on our live results page on election night. Official results are certified by the Michigan election office.
Voting in Michigan
Election Day: . Confirm your registration, deadlines, voting options, polling location and sample ballot with official sources.
Verified deadlines
- Voter registration deadline (online or mail): · online or mail (closes) · Official source ↗
- In-person registration at your clerk's office (with proof of residency): · in person through November 3, 2026 · Official source ↗Includes Election Day.
- Early in-person voting: · in person through November 1, 2026 · Official source ↗Required statewide period; some places may add Nov 2.
- Absentee ballot request in person at clerk's office: · in person (closes) · Official source ↗By 4 p.m.
Not verified in this guide: Absentee request deadline by mail or online; Absentee ballot return deadline.
Sources checked 2026-10-07. Election rules and deadlines can change; confirm details with the authority.
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