Angie Nixon vs. Ashley Moody polls: Florida senate race 2026
Angie Nixon vs. Ashley Moody · Ashley Moody (R), appointed
Election Day: · Florida state guide
Ashley Moody won by 2.9 points · called by Fox News at Nov 3, 8:33 PM ET
Lead at Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET: R +2.7 (97% counted) → now R +2.9
Unofficial results. Vote shares and calls from the Fox News Decision Desk results page ↗; this site does not project winners. Certified results come from the state election office.
Florida Senate special election result
Ashley Moody (Republican) won the Florida Senate special election, according to a race call by Fox News at Nov 3, 8:33 PM ET. With 99% of the expected vote counted, Ashley Moody had 50.9% to Angie Nixon's 48.0%, a margin of 2.9 points.
The seat was held by a Republican before the election.
The final 14-day polling average, based on 1 verified poll, was R +6.0; the result so far is R +2.9, 3.1 points more Democratic than the polls.
On election night, the first snapshot this site saved (Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET, 97% counted) showed the Republican ahead by 2.7 points; the lead held roughly steady to 2.9 points in the latest count. Early returns often contain a different mix of ballots than later ones, so movement during the count is normal.
Analysis: Florida, Minnesota and South Carolina: Six Races in One Set of NYT/Siena Polls
Certified results come from the Florida election office. See also polls vs results and closest races.
Recent verified polling is available
1 verified poll ended in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Their simple average: Angie Nixon 44.0%, Ashley Moody 50.0% (not a forecast).
Most recent: NYT/Siena, field dates ending : Angie Nixon 44%, Ashley Moody 50%.
1 logged poll is shown below but left out of averages under our methodology; the reason is listed with each poll.
As of October 7, 2026, 2 reported polls were held back from this page until they can be checked against the original release.
Candidates · Ratings: Cook Solid R, Sabato Likely R · Polls and sources · Florida voting guide · Latest polls in all races
Ratings are forecasters' judgments, not polls. About these ratings
Candidates
Angie Nixon
State Representative
Ashley Moody
Appointed senator; former Florida Attorney General
Candidates recorded in this dataset; confirm the complete ballot with the election authority. Poll matchups may omit other candidates.
Current 14-day average
Equal-weight arithmetic mean of 1 logged poll ending in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. No sample-size or pollster weighting.
Logged polls and sources
| Pollster / field dates | Sample / population | Angie Nixon % | Ashley Moody % | Source / notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT/SienaOctober 19, 2026 – October 26, 2026Included in current average | 813LV | 44 | 50 | Original source ↗Siena release gives toplines; Oct 19-26 field dates and LV sample size from news report of the release.Sponsor: The New York Times |
| YouGovSeptember 28, 2026 – October 5, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 3813LV | 44 | 49 | Original source ↗YouGov state topline PDF confirms field dates, LV sample size and Senate/governor results.Method: Online opt-in panel; likely voter model |
| Stetson University CPORSeptember 14, 2026 – September 21, 2026Source or essential poll metadata not verified | 830 adults overall; likely-voter subsample not yet verifiedPopulation not recorded | 40 | 51 | Original source ↗Percentages and field dates confirmed; stored end date was the publication date. Exact analytic population/sample requires the full report.Method: Qualtrics online panel |
| InsiderAdvantageSeptember 20, 2026 – September 21, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 600LV | 42 | 49 | Original source ↗42/49 confirmed by original release.Method: Text-to-web and online panel |
Unverified and incomplete records stay visible and are explicitly excluded from the calculated average. We have not calculated an uncertainty interval for these averages. Source limitations.
Poll history
Trend of the 4 logged polls listed in the table above.
Ashley Moody (R) leads Angie Nixon (D) by 6.0 points in the average of 1 public poll from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Solid R; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Likely R.
- Florida Governor race · Donalds +4.0 in polls
- Nebraska Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- South Carolina Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- Texas Governor · Abbott +1.0 · one of the closest races
- Kansas Governor · Masterson +1.5 · one of the closest races
- 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · Analysis
- Florida, Minnesota and South Carolina: Six Races in One Set of NYT/Siena Polls · Analysis
Full candidate biographies, primary results and campaign history: Florida (special) Senate election on Wikipedia ↗. Official candidate lists and certified results come from the Florida election office via vote.gov.
What do verified polls show in the 2026 Florida Senate race?
Ashley Moody (R) leads Angie Nixon (D) by 6.0 points in the average of 1 public poll from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Solid R; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Likely R. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
When is the Florida Senate election?
The general election is on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early and mail voting rules vary; check Florida's rules on vote.gov.
What time do polls close in Florida?
On November 3, polls in Florida close at 7 p.m. ET in most of the state and 8 p.m. ET in the panhandle. Anyone in line at closing time can still vote. See all states on our poll closing times page.
Where can I check the poll sources?
The logged poll table below links to original releases where a source is recorded. Only verified, complete polls are included in the calculated average.
Where can I follow live Florida results?
Unofficial live results for this race will appear on this page and on our live results page on election night. Official results are certified by the Florida election office.
Voting in Florida
Election Day: . Confirm your registration, deadlines, voting options, polling location and sample ballot with official sources.
Verified deadlines
- Voter registration deadline: · online, mail or in person · Official source ↗One statewide deadline, 29 days before the election.
- Request a vote-by-mail ballot to be mailed: · mail · must be received by this date · Official source ↗Request must reach the county Supervisor of Elections by 5 p.m.
- Early voting (required statewide period): · in person through October 31, 2026 · Official source ↗Counties may add optional days; check your county Supervisor of Elections.
- Vote-by-mail ballot must arrive: · mail or drop-off · must be received by this date · Official source ↗Must reach the Supervisor of Elections by 7 p.m. local time; a postmark does not count.
Not verified in this guide: Separate postmark or receipt rules for each registration method.
Sources checked 2026-10-07. Election rules and deadlines can change; confirm details with the authority.
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