Analysis
Original explainers and poll analysis by the Midterm Results Live team. We describe what the polls show; we do not predict winners.
- Senate · October 2, 2026
The 2026 Senate Math: What Each Party Needs on November 3
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats. Here is how many seats Democrats would need to flip, which races decide it, and what the polls show as of early October 2026.
- Guide · October 2, 2026
How to Read an Election Poll: Margin of Error, Likely Voters and Averages
A plain-English guide to reading 2026 midterm polls: what the margin of error really covers, likely vs. registered voters, partisan pollsters, and why averages beat single polls.
- Texas · October 2, 2026
Texas Senate Polls: Why Talarico vs. Paxton Is Rated a Toss-up
Talarico leads Paxton by about two points across eight recent Texas Senate polls. Here is what the individual polls, the likely-voter screens and the ratings show.
- Maine · October 2, 2026
Maine Senate Polls: A Dead Heat, and a Lesson from 2020
Troy Jackson and Susan Collins are within half a point across five recent polls. In 2020, Collins trailed in most polls and won by nearly nine. Here is what that means for reading 2026 polls.
- North Carolina · October 2, 2026
North Carolina Senate: Why Cooper's Polling Lead Is Different from 2020
Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley by about nine points across five polls. In 2020, North Carolina's Democratic Senate candidate led September polls by 2 to 5 points and lost.
- Election night · October 2, 2026
Election Night 2026: When Will We Know the Results?
What time polls close, why some states count faster than others, and which 2026 races could take days or weeks to call, including ranked-choice counts and runoffs.
- Governors · October 2, 2026
The 2026 Governor Races to Watch
Thirty-six states elect governors in 2026. These are the most competitive races by ratings and polling as of early October, from Georgia and Ohio to Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin.
- National · October 2, 2026
Generic Ballot, Presidential Approval and Midterm History
What the generic congressional ballot and Trump's approval rating show in fall 2026, how pollsters disagree, and what midterm history says about the president's party.