Chris Pappas vs. John E. Sununu polls: New Hampshire senate race 2026
Chris Pappas vs. John E. Sununu · Open — Jeanne Shaheen (D) retiring
Election Day: · New Hampshire state guide
Chris Pappas won by 13.8 points · called by Fox News at Nov 3, 8:11 PM ET
Lead at Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET: D +20.7 (25% counted) → now D +13.8
Unofficial results. Vote shares and calls from the Fox News Decision Desk results page ↗; this site does not project winners. Certified results come from the state election office.
New Hampshire Senate result
Chris Pappas (Democrat) won the New Hampshire Senate race, according to a race call by Fox News at Nov 3, 8:11 PM ET. With 99% of the expected vote counted, Chris Pappas had 55.9% to John Sununu's 42.2%, a margin of 13.8 points.
The seat was held by a Democrat before the election.
The final 14-day polling average, based on 1 verified poll, was D +8.1; the result so far is D +13.8, 5.7 points more Democratic than the polls.
On election night, the first snapshot this site saved (Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET, 25% counted) showed the Democrat ahead by 20.7 points; the lead narrowed to 13.8 points in the latest count. Early returns often contain a different mix of ballots than later ones, so movement during the count is normal.
Analysis: New Hampshire 2026 Senate and Governor Polls · The 2026 Senate Math: What Each Party Needs on November 3
Certified results come from the New Hampshire election office. See also polls vs results and closest races.
Recent verified polling is available
1 verified poll ended in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Their simple average: Chris Pappas 52.3%, John E. Sununu 44.2% (not a forecast).
Most recent: AtlasIntel, field dates ending : Chris Pappas 52.3%, John E. Sununu 44.2%.
2 logged polls are shown below but left out of averages under our methodology; the reason is listed with each poll.
As of October 7, 2026, 1 reported poll was held back from this page until it can be checked against the original release.
Candidates · Ratings: Cook Toss-up, Sabato Lean D · Polls and sources · New Hampshire voting guide · Latest polls in all races
Ratings are forecasters' judgments, not polls. About these ratings
Candidates
Chris Pappas
U.S. Representative
John E. Sununu
Former U.S. Senator
Candidates recorded in this dataset; confirm the complete ballot with the election authority. Poll matchups may omit other candidates.
Current 14-day average
Equal-weight arithmetic mean of 1 logged poll ending in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. No sample-size or pollster weighting.
Logged polls and sources
| Pollster / field dates | Sample / population | Chris Pappas % | John E. Sununu % | Source / notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntelOctober 28, 2026 – November 1, 2026Included in current average | 1057LV | 52.3 | 44.2 | Original source ↗toplines, field dates and LV sample size from Newsweek report of the AtlasIntel release.Method: Online (random digital recruitment) |
| UNH Survey CenterOctober 27, 2026 – October 31, 2026Source or essential poll metadata not verified | Sample not recordedPopulation not recorded | 54 | 42 | Original source ↗Toplines and Oct 27-31 field dates from news reports; likely-voter sample size not confirmed, so not used in averages.Sponsor: 7NEWS |
| UMass LowellOctober 2, 2026 – October 19, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 600LV | 48 | 41 | Original source ↗UMass Lowell release: Oct 2-19, 600 LV; Pappas 48, Sununu 41. |
| YouGovSeptember 28, 2026 – October 5, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1520LV | 51 | 43 | Original source ↗YouGov state topline PDF confirms field dates, LV sample size and Senate/governor results.Method: Online opt-in panel; likely voter model |
| The Trafalgar GroupSeptember 26, 2026 – September 27, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1082LV | 47.4 | 40.5 | Original source ↗Original crosstabs provide 47.4/40.5; stored 47/41 were rounded. |
| NYT/SienaStart not recorded · ends September 24, 2026Source or essential poll metadata not verified | Sample not recordedLV | 50 | 45 | Original source ↗Siena's primary release confirms this result and likely-voter population. The release page does not provide complete field dates or sample size; this record remains excluded from averages pending those details. |
Unverified and incomplete records stay visible and are explicitly excluded from the calculated average. We have not calculated an uncertainty interval for these averages. Source limitations.
Poll history
Trend of the 6 logged polls listed in the table above.
Chris Pappas (D) leads John E. Sununu (R) by 8.1 points in the average of 1 public poll from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Toss-up; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean D.
- New Hampshire Governor race · Likely R
- Nebraska Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- South Carolina Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- Texas Governor · Abbott +1.0 · one of the closest races
- Kansas Governor · Masterson +1.5 · one of the closest races
- New Hampshire 2026 Senate and Governor Polls · Analysis
- The 2026 Senate Math: What Each Party Needs on November 3 · Analysis
Full candidate biographies, primary results and campaign history: New Hampshire Senate election on Wikipedia ↗. Official candidate lists and certified results come from the New Hampshire election office via vote.gov.
What do verified polls show in the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race?
Chris Pappas (D) leads John E. Sununu (R) by 8.1 points in the average of 1 public poll from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Toss-up; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean D. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
When is the New Hampshire Senate election?
The general election is on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early and mail voting rules vary; check New Hampshire's rules on vote.gov.
What time do polls close in New Hampshire?
On November 3, polls in New Hampshire close at 7 p.m. ET in most of the state and 8 p.m. ET in the rest of the state. Anyone in line at closing time can still vote. See all states on our poll closing times page.
Where can I check the poll sources?
The logged poll table below links to original releases where a source is recorded. Only verified, complete polls are included in the calculated average.
Where can I follow live New Hampshire results?
Unofficial live results for this race will appear on this page and on our live results page on election night. Official results are certified by the New Hampshire election office.
Voting in New Hampshire
Election Day: . Confirm your registration, deadlines, voting options, polling location and sample ballot with official sources.
Verified deadlines
- Absentee ballot return deadline (in person): · in person · must be received by this date · Official source ↗Hand-delivered ballots due at the local clerk by 5 p.m. the day before the election.
- Election Day registration: · in person · Official source ↗Register at your polling place on Election Day.
- Absentee ballot return deadline (mail): · mail · must be received by this date · Official source ↗Mailed ballots must reach the local clerk by 5 p.m. on Election Day.
Not verified in this guide: Pre-election registration deadline (last supervisors of the checklist session, 6-13 days before the election; date set locally); Absentee ballot application deadline; Early in-person voting (not offered).
Sources checked 2026-10-07. Election rules and deadlines can change; confirm details with the authority.
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