Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson polls: Iowa senate race 2026
Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson · Open — Joni Ernst (R) retiring
Election Day: · Iowa state guide
Josh Turek won by 4.2 points · called by Fox News at Nov 3, 11:38 PM ET
Lead at Nov 3, 9:19 PM ET: D +27.2 (14% counted) → now D +4.2
Unofficial results. Vote shares and calls from the Fox News Decision Desk results page ↗; this site does not project winners. Certified results come from the state election office.
Iowa Senate result
Josh Turek (Democrat) won the Iowa Senate race, according to a race call by Fox News at Nov 3, 11:38 PM ET. With 99% of the expected vote counted, Josh Turek had 50.5% to Ashley Hinson's 46.4%, a margin of 4.2 points.
The seat was held by a Republican before the election, so this result is a change of party.
The final 14-day polling average, based on 2 verified polls, was D +2.5; the result so far is D +4.2, 1.6 points more Democratic than the polls.
On election night, the first snapshot this site saved (Nov 3, 9:19 PM ET, 14% counted) showed the Democrat ahead by 27.2 points; the lead narrowed to 4.2 points in the latest count. Early returns often contain a different mix of ballots than later ones, so movement during the count is normal.
Analysis: 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina: The Senate Flips Fewer People Expected · Iowa 2026 Senate and Governor Polls
Certified results come from the Iowa election office. See also polls vs results and closest races.
Recent verified polling is available
2 verified polls ended in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Their simple average: Josh Turek 49.3%, Ashley Hinson 46.7% (not a forecast).
Most recent: NYT/Siena, field dates ending : Josh Turek 48%, Ashley Hinson 47%.
2 logged polls are shown below but left out of averages under our methodology; the reason is listed with each poll.
As of October 7, 2026, 2 reported polls were held back from this page until they can be checked against the original release.
Candidates · Ratings: Cook Toss-up, Sabato Lean D · Polls and sources · Iowa voting guide · Latest polls in all races
Ratings are forecasters' judgments, not polls. About these ratings
Candidates
Josh Turek
State Representative
Ashley Hinson
U.S. Representative
Candidates recorded in this dataset; confirm the complete ballot with the election authority. Poll matchups may omit other candidates.
Current 14-day average
Equal-weight arithmetic mean of 2 logged polls ending in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. No sample-size or pollster weighting.
Logged polls and sources
| Pollster / field dates | Sample / population | Josh Turek % | Ashley Hinson % | Source / notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT/SienaOctober 23, 2026 – November 1, 2026Included in current average | 705LV | 48 | 47 | Original source ↗Siena release gives toplines; Oct 23-Nov 1 field dates and LV sample size from news report of the release (Irish Times, Nov 2).Sponsor: The New York Times |
| AtlasIntelOctober 28, 2026 – November 1, 2026Included in current average | 1219LV | 50.5 | 46.4 | Original source ↗toplines, field dates and LV sample size from Newsweek report of the AtlasIntel release.Method: Online (random digital recruitment) |
| Marist PollOctober 8, 2026 – October 11, 2026Source or essential poll metadata not verified | 1100LV | 48 | 45 | Original source ↗Marist release gives likely-voter toplines but no likely-voter sample size (1,100 RV surveyed).Method: Multi-mode survey |
| Emerson College PollingOctober 5, 2026 – October 6, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 650LV | 45 | 47 | Original source ↗Emerson release confirms field dates, LV sample size and toplines.Sponsor: Nexstar MediaMethod: Mixed-mode survey of likely voters |
| CNN/SSRSSeptember 29, 2026 – October 5, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 801LV | 43 | 45 | Original source ↗CNN poll report (syndicated) gives Senate toplines, field dates and LV sample size.Sponsor: CNNMethod: Online and phone; voter-list and probability panel sample |
| Fox News Poll (Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research)September 24, 2026 – September 28, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1008LV | 49 | 47 | Original source ↗Official Fox News topline confirms field dates, LV subsample and the Senate and governor initial ballot results.Sponsor: Fox NewsMethod: Mixed-mode telephone and text-to-web; voter-file sample |
| InsiderAdvantageSeptember 22, 2026 – September 23, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1200LV | 47 | 46 | Original source ↗47/46 confirmed. Recorded end date was publication date.Method: Text-to-web and online panel |
| Marist PollSeptember 17, 2026 – September 20, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1050RV | 50 | 42 | Original source ↗Senate 50/42 and governor 54/42 confirmed. Stored September 22 was release date.Method: Live phone, text and online |
| The Trafalgar GroupSeptember 16, 2026 – September 18, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1089LV | 42.1 | 44 | Original source ↗Original crosstabs 42.1/44; original field end September 18. |
| co/efficientSeptember 14, 2026 – September 16, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 831LV | 43 | 48 | Original source ↗Recorded 43/48 is the alternate two-candidate question; initial ballot is 42/46. Exclude the alternate from general-ballot averages.Method: Text responses and landline interviews |
Unverified and incomplete records stay visible and are explicitly excluded from the calculated average. We have not calculated an uncertainty interval for these averages. Source limitations.
Poll history
Trend of the 10 logged polls listed in the table above.
Josh Turek (D) leads Ashley Hinson (R) by 2.5 points in the average of 2 public polls from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Toss-up; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean D.
- Iowa Governor race · Sand +8.0 in polls
- Nebraska Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- South Carolina Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- Texas Governor · Abbott +1.0 · one of the closest races
- Kansas Governor · Masterson +1.5 · one of the closest races
- 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · Analysis
- Maine and North Carolina: How Two Senate Flips Unfolded on Election Night · Analysis
Full candidate biographies, primary results and campaign history: Iowa Senate election on Wikipedia ↗. Official candidate lists and certified results come from the Iowa election office via vote.gov.
What do verified polls show in the 2026 Iowa Senate race?
Josh Turek (D) leads Ashley Hinson (R) by 2.5 points in the average of 2 public polls from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Toss-up; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean D. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
When is the Iowa Senate election?
The general election is on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early and mail voting rules vary; check Iowa's rules on vote.gov.
What time do polls close in Iowa?
On November 3, polls in Iowa close at 9 p.m. ET. Anyone in line at closing time can still vote. See all states on our poll closing times page.
Where can I check the poll sources?
The logged poll table below links to original releases where a source is recorded. Only verified, complete polls are included in the calculated average.
Where can I follow live Iowa results?
Unofficial live results for this race will appear on this page and on our live results page on election night. Official results are certified by the Iowa election office.
Voting in Iowa
Election Day: . Confirm your registration, deadlines, voting options, polling location and sample ballot with official sources.
Verified deadlines
- Early in-person voting: · in person through November 2, 2026 · Official source ↗In-person absentee voting at county auditor's office.
- Voter pre-registration deadline: · online, mail or in person (closes) · Official source ↗
- Absentee ballot request deadline: · mail · must be received by this date · Official source ↗Written applications must reach county auditor by 5 p.m.
- Election Day registration: · in person · Official source ↗Register at the polls with proof of identity and residence.
- Absentee ballot return deadline: · mail or delivery · must be received by this date · Official source ↗Must reach county auditor by 8 p.m. when polls close.
Sources checked 2026-10-07. Election rules and deadlines can change; confirm details with the authority.
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