Texas
John Cornyn (R) lost primary
D
James Talarico
DEM · State Representative
R
Ken Paxton
REP · Texas Attorney General
Latest poll: Big Data Poll, September 27, 2026: D 47 · R 45 · Sabato: Lean D
Texas Senate 2026
James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton · John Cornyn (R) lost primary
Cook: Toss-upSabato: Lean D
Election results · unofficial
All live results →Race insight · September 30, 2026
James Talarico (D) leads Ken Paxton (R) by 2.7 points in the average of 6 public polls from the 14 days ending September 27, 2026. That lead is within the typical margin of error, so the race is statistically close. The Cook Political Report rates it Toss-up; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean D.
Poll trend
Head-to-head
Candidates
Toss-up
Campaign news · summaries in our words
- Texas Senate
Talarico challenges Paxton to a debate moderated by Fox News; Paxton has not committed to any debate. The Texas Tribune ↗
Candidate background
Full candidate biographies, primary results and campaign history: Texas Senate election on Wikipedia ↗. Official candidate lists and certified results come from the Texas election office via vote.gov.
Every poll
| Pollster | End date | James Talarico (D) | Ken Paxton (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Data Poll | September 27, 2026 | 47 | 45 | D +2 |
| TPOR | September 25, 2026 | 49 | 44 | D +5 |
| TSU/YouGov | September 22, 2026 | 47 | 46 | D +1 |
| Marist | September 20, 2026 | 50 | 44 | D +6 |
| Trafalgar | September 18, 2026 | 46 | 45 | D +1 |
| Emerson | September 17, 2026 | 47 | 46 | D +1 |
Margins under about 4 points are within typical sampling error. See our methodology.
Voting in Texas
Check registration deadlines and early or mail voting in Texas on vote.gov. See all Texas races.
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