James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton polls: Texas senate race 2026
James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton · John Cornyn (R) lost primary
Election Day: · Texas state guide
James Talarico won by 12.1 points · called by Fox News at Nov 3, 11:06 PM ET
Lead at Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET: D +19.5 (26% counted) → now D +12.1
Unofficial results. Vote shares and calls from the Fox News Decision Desk results page ↗; this site does not project winners. Certified results come from the state election office.
Texas Senate result
James Talarico (Democrat) won the Texas Senate race, according to a race call by Fox News at Nov 3, 11:06 PM ET. With 99% of the expected vote counted, James Talarico had 55.1% to Ken Paxton's 43.0%, a margin of 12.1 points.
The seat was held by a Republican before the election, so this result is a change of party.
The final 14-day polling average, based on 4 verified polls, was D +3.4; the result so far is D +12.1, 8.7 points more Democratic than the polls.
On election night, the first snapshot this site saved (Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET, 26% counted) showed the Democrat ahead by 19.5 points; the lead narrowed to 12.1 points in the latest count. Early returns often contain a different mix of ballots than later ones, so movement during the count is normal.
Analysis: Why Polls Miss: Likely Voters, Weighting and Small Samples Explained · 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · How Accurate Were the 2026 Polls? A Race-by-Race Check
Certified results come from the Texas election office. See also polls vs results and closest races.
Recent verified polling is available
4 verified polls ended in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Their simple average: James Talarico 49.5%, Ken Paxton 46.0% (not a forecast).
Most recent: NYT/Siena, field dates ending : James Talarico 50%, Ken Paxton 43%.
1 logged poll is shown below but left out of averages under our methodology; the reason is listed with each poll.
As of October 7, 2026, 6 reported polls were held back from this page until they can be checked against the original release.
Candidates · Ratings: Cook Toss-up, Sabato Lean D · Polls and sources · Texas voting guide · Latest polls in all races
Ratings are forecasters' judgments, not polls. About these ratings
Candidates
James Talarico
State Representative
Ken Paxton
Texas Attorney General
Candidates recorded in this dataset; confirm the complete ballot with the election authority. Poll matchups may omit other candidates.
Current 14-day average
Equal-weight arithmetic mean of 4 logged polls ending in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. No sample-size or pollster weighting.
Logged polls and sources
| Pollster / field dates | Sample / population | James Talarico % | Ken Paxton % | Source / notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT/SienaOctober 23, 2026 – November 1, 2026Included in current average | 1215LV | 50 | 43 | Original source ↗Siena release gives toplines; Oct 23-Nov 1 field dates and LV sample size from news report of the release (Irish Times, Nov 2).Sponsor: The New York Times |
| AtlasIntelOctober 28, 2026 – November 1, 2026Included in current average | 1678LV | 51.3 | 45.4 | Original source ↗AtlasIntel release page gives Oct 28-Nov 1 field dates and LV sample; toplines, field dates and LV sample size from Newsweek report of the AtlasIntel release.Method: Online (random digital recruitment) |
| Quantus InsightsOctober 26, 2026 – October 28, 2026Included in current average | 1221LV | 47.6 | 48.7 | Original source ↗FOX 26 Houston report: Oct 26-28, 1,221 LV; Talarico 47.6, Paxton 48.7. |
| Texas Southern UniversityOctober 21, 2026 – October 25, 2026Included in current average | 2000LV | 49 | 47 | Original source ↗TSU release PDF: Oct 21-25, 2,000 LV; Talarico 49, Paxton 47.Method: Text-to-web, probability sample of registered voters |
| EmersonOctober 17, 2026 – October 19, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1000LV | 48 | 46 | Original source ↗Emerson release: Oct 17-19, 1,000 LV; initial ballot Talarico 48, Paxton 46.Sponsor: Nexstar Media |
| Texas Public Opinion ResearchOctober 15, 2026 – October 18, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 969LV | 51 | 47 | Original source ↗TPOR release: Oct 15-18, 969 LV; final push (undecideds allocated) tallies: Talarico 51, Paxton 47, Brown (L) 2. |
| UH Hobby SchoolOctober 10, 2026 – October 14, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 2000LV | 48 | 46 | Original source ↗UH Hobby School release: Oct 10-14, 2,000 LV; Talarico 48, Paxton 46. |
| Marist PollOctober 8, 2026 – October 11, 2026Source or essential poll metadata not verified | 1196LV | 47 | 45 | Original source ↗Marist release gives likely-voter toplines but no likely-voter sample size (1,196 RV surveyed).Method: Multi-mode survey |
| ReconMROctober 5, 2026 – October 8, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 617LV | 48 | 44 | Original source ↗Press release PDF confirms field dates, LV sample size and Senate/governor toplines.Sponsor: ReconMR |
| The Trafalgar GroupOctober 6, 2026 – October 8, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1086LV | 47.1 | 43.6 | Original source ↗ |
| UT/Texas Politics ProjectSeptember 25, 2026 – October 5, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 861LV | 50 | 47 | Original source ↗Release confirms field dates Sept. 25-Oct. 5, 861 likely voters (from 1,200 RV), Talarico 50, Paxton 47.Sponsor: University of Texas / Texas Politics Project |
| YouGovSeptember 28, 2026 – October 5, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 3625LV | 50 | 44 | Original source ↗YouGov state topline PDF confirms field dates, LV sample size and Senate/governor results.Method: Online opt-in panel; likely voter model |
| UMass Lowell/YouGovSeptember 18, 2026 – September 28, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 850LV | 45 | 45 | Original source ↗UMass Lowell release confirms field dates, LV sample size and Senate/governor toplines.Sponsor: UMass Lowell Center for Public OpinionMethod: Online YouGov panel |
| Fox News Poll (Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research)September 24, 2026 – September 28, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 881LV | 51 | 49 | Original source ↗Official Fox News topline confirms field dates, LV subsample and the Senate and governor initial ballot results.Sponsor: Fox NewsMethod: Mixed-mode telephone and text-to-web; voter-file sample |
| Marist PollSeptember 17, 2026 – September 20, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1139RV | 50 | 44 | Original source ↗Senate 50/44 and governor 49/46 confirmed.Method: Live phone, text and online |
| The Trafalgar GroupSeptember 15, 2026 – September 17, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1079LV | 46.4 | 45.2 | Original source ↗Original crosstabs provide 46.4/45.2; stored 46/45 were rounded. Field end September 17. |
Unverified and incomplete records stay visible and are explicitly excluded from the calculated average. We have not calculated an uncertainty interval for these averages. Source limitations.
Poll history
Trend of the 16 logged polls listed in the table above.
James Talarico (D) leads Ken Paxton (R) by 3.4 points in the average of 4 public polls from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Toss-up; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean D.
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- Texas Senate
Quantus Insights poll of 1,221 likely Texas voters (Oct. 26-28): Paxton 48.7%, Talarico 47.6%. FOX 26 Houston ↗
Full candidate biographies, primary results and campaign history: Texas Senate election on Wikipedia ↗. Official candidate lists and certified results come from the Texas election office via vote.gov.
What do verified polls show in the 2026 Texas Senate race?
James Talarico (D) leads Ken Paxton (R) by 3.4 points in the average of 4 public polls from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Toss-up; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean D. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
When is the Texas Senate election?
The general election is on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early and mail voting rules vary; check Texas's rules on vote.gov.
What time do polls close in Texas?
On November 3, polls in Texas close at 8 p.m. ET in most of the state and 9 p.m. ET in the El Paso area. Anyone in line at closing time can still vote. See all states on our poll closing times page.
Where can I check the poll sources?
The logged poll table below links to original releases where a source is recorded. Only verified, complete polls are included in the calculated average.
Where can I follow live Texas results?
Unofficial live results for this race will appear on this page and on our live results page on election night. Official results are certified by the Texas election office.
Voting in Texas
Election Day: . Confirm your registration, deadlines, voting options, polling location and sample ballot with official sources.
Verified deadlines
- Voter registration deadline: · Official source ↗
- Early in-person voting: · in person through October 30, 2026 · Official source ↗
- Ballot by mail application must arrive: · application to early voting clerk · must be received by this date · Official source ↗A postmark does not count.
- Mail ballot deadline: · mail · Official source ↗Unpostmarked ballots must arrive by 7 p.m.; ballots postmarked by 7 p.m. count if they arrive by 5 p.m. Nov 4.
Sources checked 2026-10-07. Election rules and deadlines can change; confirm details with the authority.
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