Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley polls: North Carolina senate race 2026
Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley · Open — Thom Tillis (R) retiring
Election Day: · North Carolina state guide
Roy Cooper won by 19.7 points · called by Fox News at Nov 3, 8:27 PM ET
Lead at Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET: D +29.8 (64% counted) → now D +19.7
Unofficial results. Vote shares and calls from the Fox News Decision Desk results page ↗; this site does not project winners. Certified results come from the state election office.
North Carolina Senate result
Roy Cooper (Democrat) won the North Carolina Senate race, according to a race call by Fox News at Nov 3, 8:27 PM ET. With 99% of the expected vote counted, Roy Cooper had 58.8% to Michael Whatley's 39.0%, a margin of 19.7 points.
The seat was held by a Republican before the election, so this result is a change of party.
The final 14-day polling average, based on 1 verified poll, was D +14.9; the result so far is D +19.7, 4.8 points more Democratic than the polls.
On election night, the first snapshot this site saved (Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET, 64% counted) showed the Democrat ahead by 29.8 points; the lead narrowed to 19.7 points in the latest count. Early returns often contain a different mix of ballots than later ones, so movement during the count is normal.
Analysis: 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · Maine and North Carolina: How Two Senate Flips Unfolded on Election Night · How Recounts Work: Automatic Triggers, Requests and Audits
Certified results come from the North Carolina election office. See also polls vs results and closest races.
Recent verified polling is available
1 verified poll ended in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Their simple average: Roy Cooper 56.4%, Michael Whatley 41.5% (not a forecast).
Most recent: AtlasIntel, field dates ending : Roy Cooper 56.4%, Michael Whatley 41.5%.
2 logged polls are shown below but left out of averages under our methodology; the reason is listed with each poll.
As of October 7, 2026, 4 reported polls were held back from this page until they can be checked against the original release.
Candidates · Ratings: Cook Lean D, Sabato Likely D · Polls and sources · North Carolina voting guide · Latest polls in all races
Ratings are forecasters' judgments, not polls. About these ratings
Candidates
Roy Cooper
Former Governor
Michael Whatley
Former RNC chair
Candidates recorded in this dataset; confirm the complete ballot with the election authority. Poll matchups may omit other candidates.
Current 14-day average
Equal-weight arithmetic mean of 1 logged poll ending in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. No sample-size or pollster weighting.
Logged polls and sources
| Pollster / field dates | Sample / population | Roy Cooper % | Michael Whatley % | Source / notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntelOctober 28, 2026 – November 1, 2026Included in current average | 1459LV | 56.4 | 41.5 | Original source ↗toplines, field dates and LV sample size from Newsweek report of the AtlasIntel release.Method: Online (random digital recruitment) |
| The Trafalgar GroupOctober 8, 2026 – October 10, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1091LV | 48.8 | 40.9 | Original source ↗ |
| Elon University/YouGovSeptember 29, 2026 – October 8, 2026Source or essential poll metadata not verified | 800LV | 52 | 39 | Original source ↗Release gives likely-voter toplines but no likely-voter sample size (800 adults matched).Sponsor: Elon UniversityMethod: Online panel (YouGov) |
| Big Data PollSeptember 27, 2026 – September 29, 2026Source or essential poll metadata not verified | 642LV | 47.4 | 35.2 | Original source ↗Headline, result and North Carolina LV crosstab were verified, but the original release's methods paragraph incorrectly says Texas; reconcile the source inconsistency before inclusion.Sponsor: Public Polling Project (crowdfunded); not campaign-affiliated per pollsterMethod: 60% live-agent phone; 40% online |
| AARP / Fabrizio Ward / Impact ResearchSeptember 17, 2026 – September 20, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1115LV | 53 | 42 | Original source ↗AARP Research/press release confirms Cooper 53/42, field dates and n=1,115 likely voters.Sponsor: AARP |
Unverified and incomplete records stay visible and are explicitly excluded from the calculated average. We have not calculated an uncertainty interval for these averages. Source limitations.
Poll history
Trend of the 5 logged polls listed in the table above.
Roy Cooper (D) leads Michael Whatley (R) by 14.9 points in the average of 1 public poll from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Lean D; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Likely D.
- Nebraska Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
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- Texas Governor · Abbott +1.0 · one of the closest races
- Kansas Governor · Masterson +1.5 · one of the closest races
- 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · Analysis
- Maine and North Carolina: How Two Senate Flips Unfolded on Election Night · Analysis
All North Carolina races · Latest polls · Poll closing times
Full candidate biographies, primary results and campaign history: North Carolina Senate election on Wikipedia ↗. Official candidate lists and certified results come from the North Carolina election office via vote.gov.
What do verified polls show in the 2026 North Carolina Senate race?
Roy Cooper (D) leads Michael Whatley (R) by 14.9 points in the average of 1 public poll from the 14 days ending November 3, 2026. The average has no calculated margin of error and is not a forecast. The Cook Political Report rates it Lean D; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Likely D. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
When is the North Carolina Senate election?
The general election is on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early and mail voting rules vary; check North Carolina's rules on vote.gov.
What time do polls close in North Carolina?
On November 3, polls in North Carolina close at 7:30 p.m. ET. Anyone in line at closing time can still vote. See all states on our poll closing times page.
Where can I check the poll sources?
The logged poll table below links to original releases where a source is recorded. Only verified, complete polls are included in the calculated average.
Where can I follow live North Carolina results?
Unofficial live results for this race will appear on this page and on our live results page on election night. Official results are certified by the North Carolina election office.
Voting in North Carolina
Election Day: . Confirm your registration, deadlines, voting options, polling location and sample ballot with official sources.
Verified deadlines
- Voter registration deadline: · online, mail or in person (closes) · Official source ↗5 p.m. deadline for regular registration.
- Early in-person voting: · in person through October 31, 2026 · Official source ↗Ends 3 p.m. Saturday, Oct 31.
- Same-day registration: · in person through October 31, 2026 · Official source ↗Only at early voting sites, not on Election Day.
- Absentee ballot request deadline: · online, mail or in person · must be received by this date · Official source ↗5 p.m.
- Absentee ballot return deadline: · mail or in person · must be received by this date · Official source ↗7:30 p.m. on Election Day.
Sources checked 2026-10-07. Election rules and deadlines can change; confirm details with the authority.
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