Texas 2026 Results: Senate and Governor Compared With the Polls
Dated editorial analysis; figures in this article are not recalculated automatically. Visit the linked race pages for current data.
Texas produced two of the largest gaps between polls and results in 2026. Democrat James Talarico won the open Senate seat and Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeated Governor Greg Abbott in the governor's race, according to calls by the Fox News Decision Desk. Both seats were held by Republicans before the election.
The Senate race
The Senate seat was open after Senator John Cornyn lost the Republican primary. Talarico, a state representative, faced Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Before the election the Cook Political Report rated the race a Toss-up and Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Lean D.
Four verified polls ended in the final two weeks. Quantus Insights had Paxton ahead 48.7% to 47.6%. Texas Southern University had Talarico ahead 49% to 47%. NYT/Siena had Talarico ahead 50% to 43%, and AtlasIntel had him ahead 51.3% to 45.4%. The resulting average was Talarico +3.4.
The race was called for Talarico at 11:06 p.m. ET. With 96% of the expected vote counted, he led 55.2% to 42.9%, a margin of about 12.3 points: roughly nine points wider than the polling average.
The governor's race
Greg Abbott has been governor since 2015. His opponent, Gina Hinojosa, is a state representative. Both forecasters rated the race Likely R. Two verified polls ended in the final two weeks: Texas Southern University had Abbott ahead 50% to 47%, and NYT/Siena had Hinojosa ahead 48% to 47%. The average was Abbott +1.
The race was called for Hinojosa at 11:06 p.m. ET, the same minute as the Senate call. With 96% counted she led 52.9% to 45.6%, a margin of about 7.4 points. It was the only called Senate or governor race in our tracking where the candidate leading the polling average lost.
How the count moved
This site saved a results snapshot roughly every 30 minutes on election night. In Texas, the Democratic margins were widest in the early count and narrowed as more of the vote came in:
- At 8:43 p.m. ET, with about 26% counted, Talarico led by about 19.5 points and Hinojosa by about 13.6.
- Around 11:25 p.m., with about two-thirds counted, the margins were still near 20 and 15 points.
- By 12:21 a.m., with about 83% counted, they had narrowed to about 11.8 and 7.3 points, and they stayed close to those levels through the morning.
Early returns in Texas often include large blocks of early and mail votes, and the mix of counties reporting changes through the night. A wide early lead that narrows later is common and is not, by itself, a sign of anything unusual. The calls came before the narrowing, which reflects the decision desk's own model of the outstanding vote rather than the margin on screen at the time.
Why the polls missed
We do not know yet, and it would be speculation to name a cause before certified results and turnout data are available. What the numbers do show:
- The four Senate polls disagreed by about eight points, from Paxton +1.1 to Talarico +7. When polls spread that widely, the average is less certain than its single number suggests.
- The governor's average rested on two polls with opposite leaders.
- The miss ran in the same direction in both races, toward the Democratic candidates.
For all 25 races we compared, see How accurate were the 2026 polls? and the Polls vs results table. County-level detail and certified totals will come from the Texas Secretary of State.
Figures are unofficial. Vote shares, share of the expected vote counted and race calls come from the results snapshot this site published on November 4, 2026 (8:51 a.m. ET), drawn from the Fox News Decision Desk results pages; House calls are by The Associated Press. Polling averages are the mean of verified polls ending in the 14 days before Election Day, as shown on each race page. Certified results from state election offices may differ.
Relevant race pages: Texas Senate · Texas Governor