Ohio 2026 Senate Special and Governor Polls
Published by Midterm Results Live · · Senate
Dated editorial analysis; figures in this article are not recalculated automatically. Visit the linked race pages for current data.
Ohio voters will decide two statewide contests on the same ballot: a special election for a U.S. Senate seat and an open race for governor. Both are rated as toss-ups by Cook Political Report, and both have drawn a steady flow of polls since September. This article summarizes what the verified polls in our data show, where they disagree, and what to keep in mind when reading them.
The Senate special election
The Ohio Senate special election is for a seat now held by Jon Husted (R), who was appointed to it. He faces Sherrod Brown (D), a former U.S. senator. Because the seat was filled by appointment, voters are choosing who serves the remainder of the term through a special election rather than a regular one.
Two verified polls ended within the 14 days before our October 12 update:
- YouGov (September 18 to 30, 3,780 likely voters): Brown 49%, Husted 45%.
- InsiderAdvantage (September 28 to 29, 1,200 likely voters): Brown 44%, Husted 43%.
Their average is Brown 46.5% and Husted 44.0%, a gap of 2.5 points. With only two polls in the window, that figure is sensitive to each one. The two surveys also differ in size and method: YouGov used an online opt-in panel with a likely-voter model and a large sample, while InsiderAdvantage used text-to-web and an online panel.
Earlier verified polls sit just outside the window. Marist (September 24 to 27, registered voters) showed Brown 51% to Husted 43%, and Trafalgar (September 14 to 16, likely voters) showed Brown 45.4% to Husted 41.5%. A further poll from Big Data Poll is logged as only partly verified, because its release contains an inconsistency, so it is excluded from the averages.
The governor's race
The Ohio governor's race is open because Governor Mike DeWine (R) is term-limited. Amy Acton (D), a former Ohio health director, faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R), an entrepreneur.
Only one verified poll ended inside the 14-day window: the same YouGov survey, which found Acton at 48% and Ramaswamy at 44%, a four-point gap. A single poll is not an average, and it should be read as one data point. Marist, which ended September 27, found Acton ahead 50% to 44% among registered voters. Big Data Poll's governor result could not be independently verified and is not counted.
Why the two races can look alike
In the YouGov and Marist surveys, the Senate and governor results moved in the same direction and by similar amounts. That is common when the same respondents answer both questions in one interview. It also means the two races are not fully independent pieces of evidence: if a poll's sample leans a particular way, both results can be affected.
What the numbers can and cannot tell you
- Margins of error matter. A 2.5-point average gap is within the range that normal sampling variation can produce. Our guide to reading polls and margin of error explains how.
- Registered versus likely voters. Marist surveyed registered voters, while YouGov and InsiderAdvantage used likely-voter models. Those groups can differ in who is included.
- Methods vary. Live phone, text-to-web and online panels reach different people and can produce different results for the same race.
- Few polls, wide range. The Senate results run from a one-point to an eight-point gap across verified surveys, so no single figure summarizes the race.
How the data is built
Our averages include only polls whose pollster or a major outlet release shows the numbers, field dates and sample size, and only those that ended within 14 days of the update date. The full poll list for each race is on its page. For nationwide context, see our look at the generic ballot and presidential approval, and for how the national Senate picture fits together, Senate control math.
Election Day is November 3. Check your county board of elections for voting dates and locations, and see how election results are counted for what to expect on election night.
Poll data current as of October 12, 2026. Averages use verified polls ending within 14 days of that date. This article describes polls and does not predict outcomes or endorse any candidate.
Relevant race pages: Ohio Senate · Ohio Governor