Maine Senate Polls: A Dead Heat, and a Lesson from 2020
By the Midterm Results Live team · · Maine
Few races illustrate the limits of polling better than Maine's Senate contest. Sen. Susan Collins (R), first elected in 1996, faces former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson (D) in what the polls show as one of the closest races in the country.
The average
As of October 2, our 14-day average across five polls has Jackson at 47.8% and Collins at 47.4%, a 0.4-point gap. The individual polls disagree with each other more than the average suggests: UNH had Jackson ahead 51% to 47% and AARP had him ahead 50% to 47%, while NYT/Siena had Collins ahead 49% to 46% and co/efficient had Collins ahead 48% to 46%. InsiderAdvantage found a 46–46 tie.
The 2020 lesson
In 2020, Collins trailed her Democratic challenger in nearly every public poll in the final months of the race. She won by about 8.6 points. That miss was larger than in most states that year, and it is a big reason analysts are cautious about Maine polling. It does not mean the same error will repeat. Pollsters have adjusted their methods since 2020, and errors in past years have run in both directions. But it is a useful reminder that a race "tied in the polls" can end with a clear winner.
Ranked-choice voting
Maine uses ranked-choice voting for federal general elections. If no candidate wins a majority of first choices, the last-place candidate is eliminated and those ballots move to their next choice. With two major candidates, a winner usually emerges in the first round, but a close race with minor candidates could go to a second count, which can take several days.
What the ratings say
Cook rates Maine a Toss-up; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean D.
What to watch
- Whether new polls break the current split, or keep landing on both sides of zero.
- How undecided voters move. Collins has historically done well with voters who decide late.
- Maine's polls close at 8 p.m. ET.
See every poll on our Maine Senate race page.
Figures are public polls logged on this site as of October 2, 2026. Historical results are from certified state returns.