Iowa 2026: Senate and Governor Polls, and How Iowans Vote
Published by Midterm Results Live · · Senate
Dated editorial analysis; figures in this article are not recalculated automatically. Visit the linked race pages for current data.
Iowa will elect a new senator and a new governor this November. Senator Joni Ernst (R) is retiring, and Governor Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking another term. Both contests are listed as competitive by at least one of the major rating groups, and both have recent public polling. This article summarizes those polls as of October 7, 2026, and explains the practical rules for voting in Iowa. It makes no prediction about the outcomes.
The Senate race
The Iowa Senate race is between Josh Turek (D), a state representative, and Ashley Hinson (R), a U.S. representative. Cook Political Report rates it a Toss-up, while Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean Democratic.
Two verified polls ended in the 14-day window:
- Fox News Poll, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research (ended September 28): Turek 49%, Hinson 47%.
- InsiderAdvantage (September 23): Turek 47%, Hinson 46%.
The average is Turek 48.0% and Hinson 46.5%, a difference of 1.5 points. Both individual polls show a gap of two points or less, which is within the usual margin of error for a statewide survey. With only two polls, the average is sensitive to any single new result.
The governor's race
The Iowa governor's race pits Rob Sand (D), the state auditor, against Zach Lahn (R), a businessman. Ratings differ here: Cook lists it as Lean Democratic and Sabato as a Toss-up. The only verified poll in the window is the Fox News survey, which put Sand at 53% and Lahn at 44%.
A single poll cannot be called an average in any meaningful sense, and it is a reminder of why our site reports how many polls sit behind each number. Readers should treat a nine-point gap from one survey as one data point. The same Fox News survey showed a much narrower Senate result, so the same set of respondents produced different margins for the two offices.
Why limited polling matters
Iowa is a smaller state and attracts fewer public polls than larger battlegrounds such as Michigan or Georgia. Fewer polls mean the average is more exposed to differences in method. A poll that interviews likely voters can differ from one using registered voters, and pollsters weight for education, age and past vote in different ways. When many polls exist, those differences tend to offset each other; when only a couple exist, they may not.
For a longer discussion of these issues, see how to read an election poll. For national context on the same date, see our look at the generic ballot and midterm history.
Iowa voting rules to know
- In-person absentee (early) voting at a county auditor's office opens October 14 and runs through November 2.
- Voters must request a mailed absentee ballot by 5 p.m. on Monday, October 19.
- Mailed ballots must arrive before polls close at 8 p.m. Central Time on November 3. A postmark does not extend the deadline.
- Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
Because of the receipt deadline, voters who plan to use the mail are generally advised by election officials to return ballots well before Election Day, or to deliver them to the county auditor in person. Voters can confirm their own deadlines and locations with the Iowa Secretary of State or their county auditor.
What to watch
- Whether more verified polls appear in either race, which would make the averages more stable.
- Whether the Senate average stays within two points or moves.
- Whether other firms confirm or differ from the one governor poll.
Poll data current as of October 7, 2026. Averages use verified polls ending within 14 days of that date. This article describes polls and does not predict outcomes.