Georgia 2026 Senate and Governor Polls, and the 50% Runoff Rule
Dated editorial analysis; figures in this article are not recalculated automatically. Visit the linked race pages for current data.
Georgia voters will fill two statewide offices on November 3: a U.S. Senate seat and the governorship, which is open because the current governor is term-limited. Both appear in our tracker, but the verified polls in the two contests tell different stories, and Georgia has a counting rule that makes the exact vote share matter more than in many states.
The Senate race
The Georgia Senate race features Jon Ossoff (D), who has served as a U.S. Senator since 2021, and Mike Collins (R), a U.S. Representative. Two verified polls in our data ended within 14 days of our October 25 data date:
- Quantus Insights, ending October 17: Ossoff 51.8%, Collins 44.9%.
- AJC/UGA SPIA, ending October 15: Ossoff 48%, Collins 40%.
The mean of those two surveys is Ossoff 49.9%, Collins 42.5%. Earlier verified polls in the same race, which fall outside the 14-day window and so are not in that figure, include The Trafalgar Group (ended October 9, Ossoff 51%, Collins 43%), InsiderAdvantage (September 23, 50% to 42%) and Big Data Poll (September 23, 52.2% to 41%). Every verified poll we have logged for this race shows Ossoff ahead, though the size of the gap ranges from 8 to about 11 points in those surveys.
The AJC/UGA result leaves a larger share of respondents outside either candidate's column than the other polls do (12 points, compared with about 3 in the Quantus survey). That is a reminder that a poll's topline depends on how it treats undecided voters, which is covered in our guide to margin of error and likely voters.
The governor's race
In the Georgia governor's race, Keisha Lance Bottoms (D), a former Atlanta mayor, faces Rick Jackson (R), a businessman. Only one verified poll ended in the 14-day window: Quantus Insights, October 17, with Bottoms at 47.5% and Jackson at 49%. Two earlier verified polls, both ending September 23, were also close. InsiderAdvantage had Jackson at 48% to Bottoms' 46%, and Big Data Poll had Jackson at 48.7% to Bottoms' 46.7%.
Because the window holds a single poll, the 47.5% to 49% figure is that poll's result and not a multi-poll average. A 1.5-point gap in one survey is well inside the sampling error that polls of this kind typically carry, so it describes a close contest and does not identify a leader.
Why the two races look different
Several of the polls above surveyed both races at once. The same respondents appear to be giving a wider margin to the Senate candidate than to the governor candidates. Polls cannot explain why by themselves. Possible factors include name recognition, incumbency in one race and an open seat in the other, and how many voters say they have not decided. We do not draw a conclusion about which factor matters, and this site does not predict outcomes.
What the runoff rule means
Georgia requires a candidate to win a majority, meaning more than 50% of the votes cast, in a general election. If no candidate in a race reaches that threshold, the top two finishers advance to a runoff. According to the state's election calendar, the general election runoff date is December 1, 2026, four weeks after Election Day.
That rule shapes how to read the polls. In a two-candidate race, a majority is simply the larger share. But when a poll shows candidates in the high 40s, as the Georgia governor surveys do, the remaining few points belong to undecided voters or to anyone else on the ballot, and the way those votes split can decide whether a contest is settled on November 3 or continues into December. A Senate poll showing one candidate near 50% is similarly close to the line, not clearly over it.
If you plan to vote, deadlines for registration, early voting and absentee ballots are set by the state. Check them on our Georgia voting guide, and see when 2026 results are likely to be known for how counting timelines vary.
What to watch in new polls
- Whether more polls ending after October 17 are added for the governor's race, so the figure rests on more than one survey.
- The share of undecided respondents in each poll, not just the gap between candidates.
- Whether the Senate surveys continue to differ in how many voters they leave unassigned.
Poll data is current as of October 25, 2026. Averages use verified polls ending within 14 days of that date. Single polls are shown as reported and are not averages.
Relevant race pages: Georgia Senate · Georgia Governor