Maine and North Carolina: How Two Senate Flips Unfolded on Election Night
Dated editorial analysis; figures in this article are not recalculated automatically. Visit the linked race pages for current data.
Two of the seven Senate seats that changed party in 2026 show how differently a result can arrive on election night. North Carolina was called less than half an hour after its polls closed. Maine was not called until after midnight, after the lead had changed hands. Both seats had been held by Republicans.
North Carolina: an early call
The North Carolina seat was open after Senator Thom Tillis retired. Former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, faced Michael Whatley, a former chair of the Republican National Committee. Cook rated the race Lean D and Sabato Likely D.
Only one verified poll ended in the last two weeks: AtlasIntel, with Cooper ahead 56.4% to 41.5%. The race was called for Cooper at 8:27 p.m. ET. North Carolina counts and reports early votes quickly, and by 8:43 p.m. about 64% of the expected vote was already in, with Cooper ahead by about 30 points. That lead narrowed as Election Day votes were added, to about 22 points with 80% counted and about 19.6 points with 99% counted. The final margin was about five points wider than the single poll.
Maine: a lead that changed hands
In Maine, Susan Collins, a senator since 1997, faced Troy Jackson, a former president of the Maine Senate. Cook rated the race a Toss-up and Sabato Lean D. Four verified polls ended in the final two weeks, from Marist (Jackson +2) to AtlasIntel (Jackson +9.1), for an average of Jackson +5.5.
The first returns, under 1% of the expected vote, showed Collins ahead. Jackson led by about six points at 9:19 p.m. ET with 6% counted. At 11:25 p.m., with 43% counted, the race was essentially even: Collins had 49.99% and Jackson 49.94%. After that Jackson's margin grew with each update: about 5.5 points at 67% counted and about 7.7 points at 86%. The race was called for Jackson at 12:21 a.m. ET.
Maine uses ranked-choice voting for federal general elections. A ranked-choice tabulation is needed only when no candidate wins a majority of first choices. In this race Jackson was above 50% of the counted vote when the call was made.
What the two races have in common
- Both results were more Democratic than the polling average: by about 4.7 points in North Carolina and about 2.2 points in Maine.
- Both leads moved a lot on screen during the night, in opposite directions: North Carolina's narrowed and Maine's widened. That reflects which kinds of ballots each state counts first.
- Maine's four-poll average came closer to the result than North Carolina's single poll, the same pattern seen across all the races we checked.
The wider Senate picture
With these two seats, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio's special election, South Carolina and Texas, Democrats gained seven Senate seats among races called by November 4, giving them a majority. See Seats that flipped for the full list, and the election night replay to watch both counts move.
Figures are unofficial. Vote shares, share of the expected vote counted and race calls come from the results snapshot this site published on November 4, 2026 (8:51 a.m. ET), drawn from the Fox News Decision Desk results pages; House calls are by The Associated Press. Polling averages are the mean of verified polls ending in the 14 days before Election Day, as shown on each race page. Certified results from state election offices may differ.
Relevant race pages: Iowa Senate · Kansas Senate · Maine Senate · North Carolina Senate · Ohio Senate · South Carolina Senate · Texas Senate · Iowa Governor · Kansas Governor · Maine Governor