Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina: The Senate Flips Fewer People Expected
Dated editorial analysis; figures in this article are not recalculated automatically. Visit the linked race pages for current data.
Not every Senate seat that changed party in 2026 was on the main list of battlegrounds. Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina were rated less competitive than Maine or North Carolina for much of the year, yet Democrats won all three, according to the Fox News Decision Desk. All three seats had been held by Republicans. Iowa's call also gave Democrats their 51st Senate seat.
Iowa: the call that settled the majority
The Iowa seat was open after Senator Joni Ernst retired. State Representative Josh Turek, a Democrat, faced U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson. Cook rated it a Toss-up and Sabato Lean D. Two verified polls ended in the final two weeks: NYT/Siena (Turek 48%, Hinson 47%) and AtlasIntel (Turek 50.5%, Hinson 46.4%), an average of Turek +2.5.
The race was called for Turek at 11:38 p.m. ET. Combined with the seats not on the ballot, that was the 51st Democratic seat, an outright majority. With 98% counted Turek led 50.5% to 46.4%, a margin of about 4.1 points, within about 1.6 points of the average. His early lead was much wider, about 27 points with 14% counted, before Election Day votes narrowed it.
Kansas: an incumbent loses
In Kansas, Senator Roger Marshall, in office since 2021, faced Democrat Adam Hamilton. Both forecasters rated the race Lean R. Three verified polls ended in the final two weeks, averaging Hamilton +5.3. The race was called for Hamilton at 11:22 p.m. ET, and with 99% counted he led 50.9% to 46.1%, a margin of about 4.9 points. That was within half a point of the average. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since the 1930s, which made this one of the more notable results of the night.
South Carolina: a tied average, a clear result
In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, faced Senator Darline Graham, who had been appointed to the seat. Both forecasters rated the race Lean R. Only one verified poll ended in the final two weeks, and it showed a tie. The race was called for Andrews at 10:07 p.m. ET. With 99% counted she led 51.1% to 46.7%, a margin of about 4.5 points.
The pattern across the three
- In all three, the Democratic candidate's result was close to or slightly better than the polling average: by about 1.6 points in Iowa and 4.5 in South Carolina, and about 0.4 points weaker in Kansas.
- Kansas, with three polls, was the closest match; South Carolina, with a single poll, was the furthest. That fits the wider finding that more polls made for smaller misses.
- All three were called before midnight Eastern time, even though counting continued for hours afterward.
What to read next
The results overview puts these three seats in the context of the full Senate. Seats that flipped lists every change of party, and the election night replay shows when each race was called.
Figures are unofficial. Vote shares, share of the expected vote counted and race calls come from the results snapshot this site published on November 4, 2026 (8:51 a.m. ET), drawn from the Fox News Decision Desk results pages; House calls are by The Associated Press. Polling averages are the mean of verified polls ending in the 14 days before Election Day, as shown on each race page. Certified results from state election offices may differ.
Relevant race pages: Iowa Senate · Kansas Senate · Maine Senate · North Carolina Senate · South Carolina Senate · Iowa Governor · Kansas Governor · Maine Governor · South Carolina Governor