Texas Senate Polls: Why Talarico vs. Paxton Is Rated a Toss-up
By the Midterm Results Live team · · Texas
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, yet the 2026 race between state Rep. James Talarico (D) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), who defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary, is one of the most closely polled contests of the year.
The average
Across the eight public polls in our 14-day window as of October 2, Talarico averages 47.8% and Paxton 45.9%, a gap of 1.9 points. That is well inside the range a normal polling error could erase.
The individual polls
The spread between polls is the most useful thing to look at. In late September, results ranged from Paxton ahead by 3 (Pulse Decision Science) to Talarico ahead by 6 (Marist). Most polls landed between a 1- and 2-point Talarico edge, including Emerson, Trafalgar, TSU/YouGov and Big Data Poll. Fox News found Talarico ahead 51% to 49% among likely voters and 53% to 46% among registered voters, a reminder that turnout assumptions can move the margin by several points.
What the ratings say
The Cook Political Report rates the race a Toss-up. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean D. Prediction markets have priced Paxton as the underdog in recent days, but markets and polls measure different things and can change quickly.
The governor's race moves differently
On the same ballot, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads Gina Hinojosa (D) 49.3% to 46.5% across four polls, and both rating outlets call it Likely R. A Democratic lead at the top of the Senate race alongside a Republican lead for governor suggests some Texas voters are splitting their tickets, at least in surveys.
What to watch
- New likely-voter polls. As more pollsters switch from registered to likely voters, the margin may tighten or widen.
- Agreement among independent pollsters. A single outlier in either direction matters less than several polls moving together.
- Election night timing. Most Texas polls close at 7 p.m. Central (8 p.m. ET), with El Paso and Hudspeth counties an hour later. See our poll closing times.
Follow every Texas poll on our Texas Senate race page and Texas governor page.
Figures are public polls logged on this site as of October 2, 2026. This article describes polling and does not predict the outcome.