Florida, Minnesota and South Carolina: Six Races in One Set of NYT/Siena Polls
Dated editorial analysis; figures in this article are not recalculated automatically. Visit the linked race pages for current data.
When one pollster surveys several states in the same window with the same approach, the results can be read side by side in a way that polls from different firms usually cannot. The New York Times and Siena College published a set of likely-voter polls of Florida, Minnesota and South Carolina, with interviews running from October 19 to 26. Each poll covered both a Senate race and a governor's race, so this piece looks at six contests that share a method. A comparison of this kind is not a polling average, and with one poll per race there is nothing to average.
What was surveyed
Our tracker lists the following verified sample sizes, all of likely voters: 813 in Florida, 752 in Minnesota and 707 in South Carolina. Those are typical sizes for state polls. A sample of about 700 to 800 people carries a margin of error of roughly three and a half to four points on each candidate's share, and the margin on the gap between two candidates is larger than that. Differences of a few points between candidates, or between states, should be read with that in mind.
Florida
In the Florida Senate special election, Angie Nixon (D), a state representative, is listed at 44%, and Sen. Ashley Moody (R), who was appointed to the seat and previously served as the state's Attorney General, is at 50%. That is a six-point gap in the poll.
In the Florida governor's race, an open seat because Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is term-limited, David Jolly (D), a former U.S. Representative, is at 44% and Byron Donalds (R), a U.S. Representative, is at 48%. That is a four-point gap.
Both Florida contests show the Republican candidate ahead in this survey, and the Senate gap is wider than the governor gap. Because the two questions were asked of the same 813 people, the small difference between them is within what sampling noise can produce.
Minnesota
Minnesota is the state where this poll shows the largest numerical gaps. In the Minnesota Senate race, an open seat because Sen. Tina Smith (D) is retiring, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) is at 54% and Michele Tafoya (R), a former sports broadcaster, is at 40%.
In the Minnesota governor's race, Gov. Tim Walz (D) is not running. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) is at 56% and Lisa Demuth (R), the Minnesota House Speaker, is at 38%.
The Democratic candidate leads by double digits in both races in this one survey. Our tracker's race pages show how the outside ratings groups classify each contest; those ratings are a separate judgment from poll numbers and we do not use them to forecast anything here.
South Carolina
The South Carolina Senate race is the closest contest of the six. Annie Andrews (D), a pediatrician, and Sen. Darline Graham (R), who was appointed to the seat, are tied at 48% each. A tie in a single poll means the survey could not separate the two candidates; it is not a statement that the race is even in the full electorate.
The governor's race looks different in the same poll. Jermaine Johnson (D), a state representative, is at 44%, and Alan Wilson (R), the state Attorney General, is at 51%. Gov. Henry McMaster (R) is term-limited. So in the same set of respondents, the Senate question was level while the governor question showed a seven-point gap.
How to read a split like that
It is common for a state's Senate and governor results to differ in a poll. Voters may weigh the candidates' backgrounds differently, and some respondents say they will vote for one party for one office and the other party for the other. Pollsters call this ticket splitting. It does not mean the poll is wrong; it is one of several reasons to look at each contest separately.
What these polls cannot tell us
- One poll, one moment. Each result reflects a week of interviews that ended before our data date. Opinion can shift, and later polls may differ.
- Likely-voter models. Every pollster has to guess who will actually vote. Different guesses produce different numbers, which is one reason we avoid mixing firms without saying so.
- Undecided and third-party voters. In each race the two listed shares do not add to 100%. The remainder includes undecided respondents and other candidates.
- Polling error. State polls have missed the final margin by several points in past cycles, in both directions. Our guide to margin of error explains this in more detail.
For how results are reported once polls close, see our explainer on how election results are counted.
Data date: November 2, 2026. Poll figures come from the verified entries in our tracker for NYT/Siena surveys ending October 26. This article describes published polls and does not predict outcomes or endorse any candidate.
Relevant race pages: Florida Senate · Maine Senate · Minnesota Senate · South Carolina Senate · Florida Governor · Maine Governor · Minnesota Governor · New York Governor · South Carolina Governor