Texas in Late October 2026: Senate and Governor Polls Point in Different Directions
Dated editorial analysis; figures in this article are not recalculated automatically. Visit the linked race pages for current data.
Texas has two statewide contests in our tracker: a U.S. Senate race with no incumbent on the ballot, and a governor's race in which the incumbent is seeking another term. Both have been polled often enough this fall that we can compare several verified surveys, and the pattern is worth a closer look.
The Senate race
In the Texas Senate race, James Talarico (D), a state representative, faces Ken Paxton (R), the Texas Attorney General. Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R) lost the Republican primary. Three verified polls ended within 14 days of our October 26 data date:
- Emerson, ending October 19: Talarico 48%, Paxton 46% (1,000 likely voters).
- Texas Public Opinion Research, ending October 18: Talarico 51%, Paxton 47% (969 likely voters).
- UH Hobby School, ending October 14: Talarico 48%, Paxton 46% (2,000 likely voters).
The mean of those three is Talarico 49.0%, Paxton 46.3%, a gap of about 2.7 points. A gap of that size is within the sampling error that polls of 600 to 2,000 respondents typically carry, so the numbers describe a close race and do not settle it.
The earlier verified polls in our data point the same way. Between September 17 and October 8, Talarico's share ranged from 45% to 51% and Paxton's from 43.6% to 49%. One survey, UMass Lowell/YouGov (ended September 28), showed a 45%-to-45% tie, and the Fox News poll (same date) had Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 49%. A Marist poll ending October 11 appears in our records but is not yet verified, so it is excluded from every figure here.
The governor's race
In the Texas governor's race, Greg Abbott (R), governor since 2015, faces Gina Hinojosa (D), a state representative. The same three pollsters were in the field in the last two weeks:
- Emerson: Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 45%.
- Texas Public Opinion Research: Abbott 51%, Hinojosa 48%.
- UH Hobby School: Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 46%.
The mean is Abbott 49.7%, Hinojosa 46.3%, a gap of about 3.3 points. As with the Senate race, this is a narrow difference that individual polls can move in either direction. Earlier verified polls ranged more widely: UT/Texas Politics Project (ended October 5) had Hinojosa at 49% and Abbott at 48%, and YouGov (same date) had her at 48% to his 47%, while the Fox News poll (September 28) had Abbott at 52% and Hinojosa at 47%.
Same pollsters, different gaps
Because each of the three recent surveys asked about both races, we can compare them directly. In each one, the Democratic candidate for Senate runs ahead of, or at, the Democratic candidate for governor by a few points, and the Republican candidates show the opposite pattern. The Democratic Senate candidate's share was 3 points higher than the Democratic governor candidate's share in the Emerson poll, 3 points higher in the Texas Public Opinion Research poll, and 2 points higher in the Hobby School poll.
Polls alone do not explain that. Plausible factors include name recognition of the candidates, whether an incumbent is on the ballot, and the share of respondents who give different answers on different lines of the same ballot. We do not rank these explanations, and we do not predict what voters will do.
Why Texas polls differ from one another
- Population. Most of the polls above surveyed likely voters. Each pollster has its own rule for who counts as likely. A poll of registered voters, like the September Marist survey, can give different shares.
- Method. Online panels, phone interviews and text-to-web surveys reach different people.
- Timing. Field dates differ by up to five days across the three recent polls.
- Sample size. The Hobby School poll interviewed roughly twice as many people as Emerson, which generally reduces, but does not remove, sampling error.
Our guide to margin of error and likely voters explains these terms in more detail, and our earlier Texas Senate poll analysis looked at the race at the start of the month.
Voting in Texas
Voters should confirm registration status, early voting hours and polling places with the Texas Secretary of State or their county election office. Our Texas voting guide collects the official links, and our piece on how early voting works describes how rules differ between states.
What to watch in new polls
- Whether surveys that end after October 19 keep both gaps within a few points.
- Whether the Marist result is verified and added to the averages.
- The share of undecided respondents, which is as informative as the candidate gap.
Poll data is current as of October 26, 2026. Averages use verified polls ending within 14 days of that date. This article describes polls and does not predict outcomes or endorse any candidate.
Relevant race pages: Texas Senate · Texas Governor