Independents, three-way races and ranked-choice ballots in the 2026 Senate fight
Dated editorial analysis; figures in this article are not recalculated automatically. Visit the linked race pages for current data.
Candidate lists and polls from the Midterm Results Live ledger as of October 16, 2026
Most Senate races are a simple contest between a Democrat and a Republican. This year, several are not. Independent candidates are on the ballot in at least four states, and two of the most competitive races, Maine and Alaska, use ranked-choice voting. Each of these quirks can change who wins and how the result affects control of the Senate.
Nebraska: an independent with no Democrat in the race
The most important independent this year is Dan Osborn in Nebraska. He is challenging Republican Senator Pete Ricketts, and there is no Democrat on the ballot, which means Osborn is effectively the only alternative to the Republican.
A YouGov poll that ended October 3 had Osborn at 48% and Ricketts at 47%. Both Cook and Sabato still rate the race Likely Republican. That gap between the poll and the ratings is worth explaining.
Nebraska is a strongly Republican state in federal elections. Forecasters know that undecided voters in a state like this often "come home" to the party they usually support in the final weeks. They also know that a single poll in a lightly polled state carries a lot of uncertainty. A tie in one poll is a good result for Osborn, but it is not yet evidence that he is favored.
What an Osborn win would mean for the Senate
This is the harder question. When Osborn ran for the Senate in 2024, he said he would not caucus with either party. If he wins and keeps that position, the Senate's math changes. A seat would leave the Republican column without joining the Democratic one.
In practice, that would make a Republican majority smaller and could make it harder for either side to reach 51. It would also give one senator unusual influence over close votes. Readers should treat any claim about what Osborn "would do" with caution until he says so himself after the election.
Idaho: an independent as the main challenger
In Idaho, our candidate list shows Republican Senator Jim Risch facing independent Todd Achilles as his main opponent. Both forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, and we have no verified polls of it in our ledger. Idaho is one of the most Republican states in the country, so this race is not expected to be close. It is still worth noting as part of a broader pattern: in deeply one-party states, some challengers now run as independents rather than under the minority party's label.
Montana: a three-way open seat
Montana's seat is open because Senator Steve Daines is retiring. Our list shows three candidates: Democrat Alani Bankhead, Republican Kurt Alme and independent Seth Bodnar.
Three-way races are hard to predict. An independent can pull votes from either side, and the winner can take the seat with well under 50% of the vote. Both forecasters rate Montana Solid or Safe Republican, and we do not yet have a verified poll. If a credible poll shows the independent gaining, that rating could become one of the more interesting late changes of the cycle.
Mississippi: a minor third candidate
In Mississippi, Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) faces Democrat Scott Colom and independent Ty Pinkins. The race is rated Solid or Safe Republican. A third candidate in a race like this usually matters only if the top two are close, which no one currently expects here.
Ranked-choice voting in Maine and Alaska
Two of the seven Cook toss-ups, Maine and Alaska, are counted with ranked-choice voting in general elections.
Here is how it works in simple terms:
- Voters rank the candidates in order of preference: first choice, second choice and so on.
- If one candidate wins more than half of the first-choice votes, that candidate wins.
- If no one has a majority, the last-place candidate is eliminated. Ballots that ranked that candidate first are moved to their next choice.
- This repeats until one candidate has a majority of the remaining ballots.
Why it matters this year
In a two-candidate race, ranked-choice voting changes nothing: one of the two will already have a majority. But when there are minor candidates or write-ins on the ballot, the first-round count may leave no one above 50%. In that case, the final result depends on the second choices of people who voted for the minor candidates.
That has two practical effects:
- The night-of count may not be final. If no one crosses 50% in the first round, election officials run the ranked-choice tabulation later. In Maine, that can take several days. In Alaska, the state waits for absentee and mail ballots to arrive before running the tabulation, which can take two weeks or more.
- A poll's headline number can understate a candidate. InsiderAdvantage reported Alaska as a ranked-choice result, with Mary Peltola at 50% and Senator Dan Sullivan at 48%. Marist had Troy Jackson at 51% and Senator Susan Collins at 47% in Maine. Polls in ranked-choice states sometimes report the final round rather than first choices, so it is worth checking which one you are looking at.
The bottom line
Independents and ranked-choice voting add uncertainty to a Senate map that is already close. Nebraska is the race to watch: if Osborn wins, the question of who controls the Senate could depend on a senator who belongs to neither party. And in Maine and Alaska, election night may end without a winner, because the final count can take days or weeks.
Follow each of these races on our Senate page, and see poll closing times to plan your election night.
Relevant race pages: Alaska Senate · Idaho Senate · Maine Senate · Mississippi Senate · Montana Senate · Nebraska Senate · Alaska Governor · Idaho Governor · Maine Governor · Nebraska Governor