Michigan 2026: Two Open Seats, Two Sets of Polls
Published by Midterm Results Live · · Senate
Dated editorial analysis; figures in this article are not recalculated automatically. Visit the linked race pages for current data.
Michigan is one of the few states where both a U.S. Senate seat and the governorship are open at the same time. Senator Gary Peters (D) is retiring, and Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) is term-limited. That means voters will fill two statewide offices without an incumbent on the ballot, and both contests have drawn recent public polling. This article describes what those polls show as of October 7, 2026, without forecasting either result.
The Senate race
The Michigan Senate race pairs Abdul El-Sayed (D), a physician and former Detroit health director, against Mike Rogers (R), a former U.S. representative. Both Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball currently list the seat as a Toss-up or Lean Democratic, depending on the rater.
Six verified polls ended within the 14 days before our latest update. Their averages are El-Sayed 48.3% and Rogers 45.9%, a gap of 2.4 points. The individual results are spread widely:
- Marist Poll (ended September 27): El-Sayed 51%, Rogers 44%.
- Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research (September 28): 50% to 49%.
- The Trafalgar Group (September 30): 46.9% to 45.1%.
- Big Data Poll (September 24): 46.7% to 42.1%.
- Two co/efficient surveys (September 23) show 45% to 45% and 50% to 50%.
The range runs from a tie to a seven-point gap. When several well-conducted polls land this far apart, the average is a summary of the range rather than a precise measurement. A gap of about two points is also smaller than the typical margin of error on a single poll of roughly 1,000 respondents, so the numbers describe a close race without separating the candidates.
The governor's race
The Michigan governor's race features Jocelyn Benson (D), the Secretary of State, and John James (R), a U.S. representative. Three verified polls fall in the window: Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research (54% to 45%), Marist (53% to 41%) and co/efficient (47% to 44%). The three-poll average is Benson 51.3% and James 43.3%, a gap of 8.0 points. Ratings sit at Lean Democratic.
It is worth noting that the governor's average shows a wider gap than the Senate average, even though several of the same firms polled both races. That can happen when a share of voters back candidates from different parties in the same election, and it is one reason analysts look at each contest separately instead of assuming one result tracks the other. Three polls is also a small sample of surveys, so the governor's average can move quickly as new results arrive.
How the polls were gathered
Our averages include only polls whose release details have been checked, and only those that ended within 14 days of the update date. Polls that use different populations (registered voters versus likely voters), different modes (phone, text, online panel) or different ways of weighting by past vote can produce different results from the same electorate. None of the firms above is treated as more reliable than another in the averages: each verified poll counts equally.
How voting works in Michigan
Michigan's constitution now requires nine days of in-person early voting before statewide elections. Early voting starts on the second Saturday before Election Day and runs through the Sunday before, covering four weekend days and five weekdays. Absentee ballots became available 45 days before the election, and voters can also return a completed absentee ballot at an early-voting site or polling place and feed it into the tabulator (not available in Detroit). Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, and county clerks can check local deadlines and locations.
For election-night expectations, see our guide to when results will come in, and for general background on polling error see how to read an election poll.
What to watch
- Whether additional verified Senate polls narrow or widen the 2.4-point average.
- Whether the governor's race continues to show a larger gap than the Senate race.
- Differences between registered-voter and likely-voter results as pollsters tighten their screens.
Poll data current as of October 7, 2026. Averages use verified polls ending within 14 days of that date. This article describes polls and does not predict outcomes.