New Hampshire 2026 Senate and Governor Polls
Published by Midterm Results Live · · Senate
Dated editorial analysis; figures in this article are not recalculated automatically. Visit the linked race pages for current data.
New Hampshire has two high-profile statewide races this year: an open U.S. Senate seat and the governorship. Recent polls show a notable pattern, with the two races pointing to different margins and different leaders. This article walks through the verified polling in our data, explains why results from the same state can diverge, and notes the limits of what a small number of polls can show.
The Senate race
Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D) is retiring, leaving the seat open. The New Hampshire Senate race features Chris Pappas (D), a U.S. representative, and John E. Sununu (R), a former U.S. senator. Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up, while Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean Democratic.
Within the 14 days before our October 12 update, one verified poll was available: YouGov (September 28 to October 5, 1,520 likely voters), which found Pappas at 51% and Sununu at 43%, an eight-point gap. With a single poll in the window, our average equals that result and should be treated cautiously.
Two other surveys give context. Trafalgar (ending September 27, likely voters) showed Pappas at 47.4% and Sununu at 40.5%, a gap of 6.9 points. NYT/Siena (released September 24, likely voters) showed Pappas 50% and Sununu 45%. We log the Siena result as partly verified, because its release does not give complete field dates or a sample size, so it is not counted in averages. All three show the Democratic candidate ahead, though by different amounts.
The governor's race
Governor Kelly Ayotte (R) took office in 2025 and is seeking a full term against Cinde Warmington (D), a former member of the Executive Council. The New Hampshire governor's race is rated Likely Republican by both Cook and Sabato.
The same YouGov survey found Ayotte at 49% and Warmington at 40%, a nine-point gap. NYT/Siena, released a day after its Senate figures, showed Ayotte at 52% and Warmington at 41%; again, that record is partly verified and excluded from the average.
Why a state can show two different leaders
It can look surprising that one poll shows the Democratic Senate candidate ahead by eight points and the Republican governor ahead by nine. The numbers are not necessarily in conflict. Some possible reasons:
- Split-ticket voting. Voters in New Hampshire can choose candidates from different parties for different offices, and the same respondents may do so in a poll.
- Candidate profiles. Name recognition, time in office and campaign activity differ between a sitting governor and challengers or open-seat candidates.
- Open versus incumbent contests. Open-seat races often have more undecided voters early on than races with an incumbent.
These are general features of polling, not explanations of any specific voter's choice, and the polls themselves cannot say which factor matters most.
Reading the evidence carefully
- Sample size. The YouGov poll surveyed 1,520 likely voters, which gives a margin of error of roughly two to three points on each candidate's share, before accounting for panel and weighting effects. See our explainer on margin of error.
- Method. YouGov uses an online opt-in panel with a likely-voter model. Other pollsters use different approaches, and results can differ.
- Timing. Polls ending late September or early October capture opinion at that moment, and views can change as more voters tune in.
How the data is built
Our averages use only polls whose release shows the numbers, field dates and sample size, and only those ending within 14 days of the update. For the wider picture of who controls the chamber, see Senate control math, and for other governor contests, governor races to watch. Voters should confirm registration and voting details with the New Hampshire Secretary of State's office, and our voter ID guide covers what to bring.
Poll data current as of October 12, 2026. Averages use verified polls ending within 14 days of that date. This article describes polls and does not predict outcomes or endorse any candidate.
Relevant race pages: New Hampshire Senate · New Hampshire Governor