Generic Ballot, Presidential Approval and Midterm History
By the Midterm Results Live team · · National
Two national numbers get a lot of attention in a midterm year: the generic congressional ballot, which asks which party voters prefer for Congress, and the president's job approval. Neither predicts individual races, but both describe the national environment those races are run in.
The generic ballot
National polls in late September show Democrats ahead on the generic ballot, but the size of the lead varies a lot by pollster. Recent results we logged include Democrats +11 (Emerson, likely voters), +12 (Quinnipiac, registered voters), +16 (Angus Reid and Economist/YouGov), and +2 (Harvard CAPS/Harris, likely voters). A spread that wide is a reason to look at the average and the trend rather than any single number.
Presidential approval
President Trump's job approval in the newest national polls ranges from 31% (AP-NORC) to 42% (Morning Consult and Harvard CAPS/Harris), with Quinnipiac and Angus Reid at 34% and Economist/YouGov at 36%. Differences in wording, survey method and whether a poll includes all adults or only voters explain some of the gap.
What history says
Since World War II, the president's party has lost House seats in almost every midterm election. The main exceptions were 1998 and 2002. Senate results are less consistent, because only a third of seats are up and the map matters a great deal. In 2026, Republicans are defending 22 of the 35 Senate seats on the ballot, including several in states where polls are close.
Why national numbers do not decide individual races
Candidates, local issues and state partisanship still matter. Polls this year show examples of split-ticket voting. In Texas, the Democratic Senate candidate leads in the average while the Republican governor leads. In Georgia, the Democratic senator leads by about nine points while the governor's race is close to tied. National environment shifts the odds; it does not settle races.
Where to follow it
Our home page charts approval and the generic ballot day by day, and every new national poll appears on the latest polls page.
Figures are public polls logged on this site as of October 2, 2026. Historical seat changes are from official House election results.