North Carolina Senate: Why Cooper's Polling Lead Is Different from 2020
By the Midterm Results Live team · · North Carolina
North Carolina's open Senate seat, left by retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R), pits former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) against former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley (R).
The average
Across five polls in our 14-day window as of October 2, Cooper averages 50.0% and Whatley 40.7%, a gap of 9.3 points. Cooper leads in every recent poll we logged, with margins from about 8 points (High Point) to 12 points (Big Data Poll).
Why 2020 comes up
North Carolina has a recent history of close statewide races. In 2020, Democrat Cal Cunningham led most September polls by roughly 2 to 5 points and lost to Tillis by about 1.8 points. That race is often cited as a warning about trusting North Carolina polls.
The difference this year is size. A 9-point average lead is roughly double the leads seen in 2020. For the current leader to lose, the polling miss would have to be considerably larger than the 2020 miss in this state. That can happen, but it would be unusual.
What the ratings say
Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Lean D. Ratings tend to move slowly and often stay cautious in states with a history of close outcomes.
Why it matters for Senate control
This is a Republican-held seat. Because Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority, North Carolina is the race where their polling lead is largest. See our Senate math explainer.
What to watch
- Whether the lead holds as more pollsters move to likely-voter screens.
- North Carolina's polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET. The state counts early votes quickly, so early returns are often informative.
Follow every poll on our North Carolina Senate race page.
Figures are public polls logged on this site as of October 2, 2026. This article describes polling and does not predict the outcome.