Cinde Warmington vs. Kelly Ayotte polls: New Hampshire governor race 2026
Cinde Warmington vs. Kelly Ayotte · Kelly Ayotte (R)
Election Day: · New Hampshire state guide
Kelly Ayotte won by 4.3 points · called by Fox News at Nov 3, 11:06 PM ET
Lead at Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET: D +2.4 (29% counted) → now R +4.3
Unofficial results. Vote shares and calls from the Fox News Decision Desk results page ↗; this site does not project winners. Certified results come from the state election office.
New Hampshire Governor result
Kelly Ayotte (Republican) won the New Hampshire governor's race, according to a race call by Fox News at Nov 3, 11:06 PM ET. With 99% of the expected vote counted, Kelly Ayotte had 51.4% to Cinde Warmington's 47.1%, a margin of 4.3 points.
The seat was held by a Republican before the election.
No verified poll ended in the final two weeks of the campaign, so there is no polling average to compare with the result.
On election night, the first snapshot this site saved (Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET, 29% counted) showed the Democrat ahead by 2.4 points; the lead later changed hands, and the Republican was ahead by 4.3 points in the latest count. Early returns often contain a different mix of ballots than later ones, so movement during the count is normal.
Analysis: New Hampshire 2026 Senate and Governor Polls
Certified results come from the New Hampshire election office. See also polls vs results and closest races.
No verified poll in the last 14 days
The most recent verified poll in our dataset is UMass Lowell, field dates ending : Cinde Warmington 42%, Kelly Ayotte 48%. It is listed below as history and is not used in a current average.
2 logged polls are shown below but left out of averages under our methodology; the reason is listed with each poll.
As of October 7, 2026, 1 reported poll was held back from this page until it can be checked against the original release.
Candidates · Ratings: Cook Likely R, Sabato Likely R · Polls and sources · New Hampshire voting guide · Latest polls in all races
Governor races with recent verified polls: Texas (Abbott +1.0 in the 14-day average), Kansas (Masterson +1.5 in the 14-day average), Nebraska (Pillen +3.0 in the 14-day average).
Ratings are forecasters' judgments, not polls. About these ratings
Candidates
Cinde Warmington
Former Executive Councilor
Kelly Ayotte
Governor since 2025
Candidates recorded in this dataset; confirm the complete ballot with the election authority. Poll matchups may omit other candidates.
Current 14-day average
No recent public polls
No average is available in the 14-day window through November 3, 2026. Older polls are listed as historical data below.
Logged polls and sources
| Pollster / field dates | Sample / population | Cinde Warmington % | Kelly Ayotte % | Source / notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNH Survey CenterOctober 27, 2026 – October 31, 2026Source or essential poll metadata not verified | Sample not recordedPopulation not recorded | 48 | 48 | Original source ↗Toplines and Oct 27-31 field dates from news reports; likely-voter sample size not confirmed, so not used in averages.Sponsor: 7NEWS |
| UMass LowellOctober 2, 2026 – October 19, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 600LV | 42 | 48 | Original source ↗UMass Lowell release: Oct 2-19, 600 LV; Warmington 42, Ayotte 48. |
| YouGovSeptember 28, 2026 – October 5, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1520LV | 40 | 49 | Original source ↗YouGov state topline PDF confirms field dates, LV sample size and Senate/governor results.Method: Online opt-in panel; likely voter model |
| NYT/SienaStart not recorded · ends September 24, 2026Source or essential poll metadata not verified | Sample not recordedLV | 41 | 52 | Original source ↗Siena's primary release confirms this result and likely-voter population. The release page does not provide complete field dates or sample size; this record remains excluded from averages pending those details. |
Unverified and incomplete records stay visible and are explicitly excluded from the calculated average. We have not calculated an uncertainty interval for these averages. Source limitations.
Poll history
Trend of the 4 logged polls listed in the table above.
No recent public polling is logged for the governor's race in New Hampshire in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Historical polls remain listed below. The Cook Political Report rates it Likely R; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Likely R.
- New Hampshire Senate race · Pappas +8.1 in polls
- Nebraska Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- South Carolina Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- Texas Governor · Abbott +1.0 · one of the closest races
- Kansas Governor · Masterson +1.5 · one of the closest races
- New Hampshire 2026 Senate and Governor Polls · Analysis
- The 2026 Senate Math: What Each Party Needs on November 3 · Analysis
Full candidate biographies, primary results and campaign history: New Hampshire Governor election on Wikipedia ↗. Official candidate lists and certified results come from the New Hampshire election office via vote.gov.
What do verified polls show in the 2026 New Hampshire governor race?
No recent public polling is logged for the governor's race in New Hampshire in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Historical polls remain listed below. The Cook Political Report rates it Likely R; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Likely R. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
When is the New Hampshire governor election?
The general election is on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early and mail voting rules vary; check New Hampshire's rules on vote.gov.
What time do polls close in New Hampshire?
On November 3, polls in New Hampshire close at 7 p.m. ET in most of the state and 8 p.m. ET in the rest of the state. Anyone in line at closing time can still vote. See all states on our poll closing times page.
Where can I check the poll sources?
The logged poll table below links to original releases where a source is recorded. Only verified, complete polls are included in the calculated average.
Where can I follow live New Hampshire results?
Unofficial live results for this race will appear on this page and on our live results page on election night. Official results are certified by the New Hampshire election office.
Voting in New Hampshire
Election Day: . Confirm your registration, deadlines, voting options, polling location and sample ballot with official sources.
Verified deadlines
- Absentee ballot return deadline (in person): · in person · must be received by this date · Official source ↗Hand-delivered ballots due at the local clerk by 5 p.m. the day before the election.
- Election Day registration: · in person · Official source ↗Register at your polling place on Election Day.
- Absentee ballot return deadline (mail): · mail · must be received by this date · Official source ↗Mailed ballots must reach the local clerk by 5 p.m. on Election Day.
Not verified in this guide: Pre-election registration deadline (last supervisors of the checklist session, 6-13 days before the election; date set locally); Absentee ballot application deadline; Early in-person voting (not offered).
Sources checked 2026-10-07. Election rules and deadlines can change; confirm details with the authority.
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