Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vs. Bernadette Wilson polls: Alaska governor race 2026
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vs. Bernadette Wilson · Open — Mike Dunleavy (R) term-limited · top-four ranked choice
Election Day: · Alaska state guide
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads by 20.8 points
Lead at Nov 4, 1:12 AM ET: D +27.8 (21% counted) → now D +20.8
Unofficial results. Vote shares and calls from the Fox News Decision Desk results page ↗; this site does not project winners. Certified results come from the state election office.
Alaska Governor result
The Alaska governor's race had not been called in the latest results on this site. With 86% of the expected vote counted, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (Democrat) led Bernadette Wilson by 20.8 points, 49.8% to 29.0%.
The seat was held by a Republican before the election, so this lead would be a change of party.
No verified poll ended in the final two weeks of the campaign, so there is no polling average to compare with the result.
On election night, the first snapshot this site saved (Nov 4, 1:12 AM ET, 21% counted) showed the Democrat ahead by 27.8 points; the lead narrowed to 20.8 points in the latest count. Early returns often contain a different mix of ballots than later ones, so movement during the count is normal.
Analysis: Alaska 2026: How to Read Ranked-Choice Polls, and What the Repeal Measure Would Change
Certified results come from the Alaska election office. See also polls vs results and closest races.
No verified public poll is in our dataset yet
As of November 3, 2026, we have not logged a verified public poll of the 2026 Alaska governor general election. That does not mean no poll exists. We add a poll only after checking its original release for the results, field dates and sample size.
1 logged poll is shown below but left out of averages under our methodology; the reason is listed with each poll.
As of October 7, 2026, 1 reported poll was held back from this page until it can be checked against the original release.
Candidates · Ratings: Cook Likely R, Sabato Lean R · Alaska voting guide · Latest polls in all races
Governor races with recent verified polls: Texas (Abbott +1.0 in the 14-day average), Kansas (Masterson +1.5 in the 14-day average), Nebraska (Pillen +3.0 in the 14-day average).
Ratings are forecasters' judgments, not polls. About these ratings
Candidates
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Former state representative
Bernadette Wilson
Top Republican in primary
Dave Bronson
Former Anchorage mayor
Treg Taylor
Former Attorney General
Candidates recorded in this dataset; confirm the complete ballot with the election authority. Poll matchups may omit other candidates.
Current 14-day average
No recent public polls
No average is available in the 14-day window through November 3, 2026. Older polls are listed as historical data below.
Logged polls and sources
| Pollster / field dates | Sample / population | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins % | Bernadette Wilson % | Source / notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for ProgressOctober 8, 2026 – October 16, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 694LV | 53 | 47 | Original source ↗Simulated final ranked-choice round Kreiss-Tomkins 53, Wilson 47 (first choice 46-28).Method: SMS and web panel |
Unverified and incomplete records stay visible and are explicitly excluded from the calculated average. We have not calculated an uncertainty interval for these averages. Source limitations.
Poll history
Trend of the 1 logged poll listed in the table above.
No recent public polling is logged for the governor's race in Alaska in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Historical polls remain listed below. The Cook Political Report rates it Likely R; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean R.
- Alaska Senate race · Peltola +2.0 in polls
- Nebraska Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- South Carolina Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- Texas Governor · Abbott +1.0 · one of the closest races
- Kansas Governor · Masterson +1.5 · one of the closest races
- 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · Analysis
- Alaska 2026: How to Read Ranked-Choice Polls, and What the Repeal Measure Would Change · Analysis
Full candidate biographies, primary results and campaign history: Alaska Governor election on Wikipedia ↗. Official candidate lists and certified results come from the Alaska election office via vote.gov.
What do verified polls show in the 2026 Alaska governor race?
No recent public polling is logged for the governor's race in Alaska in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Historical polls remain listed below. The Cook Political Report rates it Likely R; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean R. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
When is the Alaska governor election?
The general election is on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early and mail voting rules vary; check Alaska's rules on vote.gov.
What time do polls close in Alaska?
On November 3, polls in Alaska close at midnight ET in most of the state and 1 a.m. ET (Nov. 4) in the Aleutians. Anyone in line at closing time can still vote. See all states on our poll closing times page.
Where can I check the poll sources?
The logged poll table below links to original releases where a source is recorded. Only verified, complete polls are included in the calculated average.
Where can I follow live Alaska results?
Unofficial live results for this race will appear on this page and on our live results page on election night. Official results are certified by the Alaska election office.
Voting in Alaska
Election Day: . Confirm your registration, deadlines, voting options, polling location and sample ballot with official sources.
Verified deadlines
- Register or update registration: · online, mail or in person · Official source ↗Sunday deadline. State absentee guidance says registration must be postmarked or received 30 days before Election Day.
- Early and absentee in-person voting begins: · in person (opens) · Official source ↗Location schedules vary; consult the Division's location list.
- Absentee by-mail application must arrive: · mail ballot request · must be received by this date · Official source ↗
- Return a mailed absentee ballot: · mail · postmark by this date · Official source ↗Postmarked or received by Election Day; hand delivery to a voting location by 8 p.m. Check later receipt rules with the authority.
Not verified in this guide: Final mail receipt date not independently verified here..
Sources checked 2026-10-07. Election rules and deadlines can change; confirm details with the authority.
Add this live-updating poll widget to your article or blog. Free with the attribution link intact. Commercial licensing: contact us.
Keep this data free
Midterm Results Live is independent and takes no money from campaigns or parties. Reader support pays for hosting and data work. This is not a political contribution.
Support Midterm Results Live