Aaron D. Ford vs. Joe Lombardo polls: Nevada governor race 2026
Aaron D. Ford vs. Joe Lombardo · Joe Lombardo (R)
Election Day: · Nevada state guide
Aaron Ford won by 7.6 points · called by Fox News at Nov 4, 4:47 AM ET
Lead at Nov 4, 4:47 AM ET: D +7.6 (87% counted) → now D +7.6
Unofficial results. Vote shares and calls from the Fox News Decision Desk results page ↗; this site does not project winners. Certified results come from the state election office.
Nevada Governor result
Aaron Ford (Democrat) won the Nevada governor's race, according to a race call by Fox News at Nov 4, 4:47 AM ET. With 98% of the expected vote counted, Aaron Ford had 51.6% to Joseph Lombardo's 44.0%, a margin of 7.6 points.
The seat was held by a Republican before the election, so this result is a change of party.
No verified poll ended in the final two weeks of the campaign, so there is no polling average to compare with the result.
On election night, the first snapshot this site saved (Nov 4, 4:47 AM ET, 87% counted) showed the Democrat ahead by 7.6 points; the lead held roughly steady to 7.6 points in the latest count. Early returns often contain a different mix of ballots than later ones, so movement during the count is normal.
Analysis: 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · How Recounts Work: Automatic Triggers, Requests and Audits · The 2026 Governor Races to Watch
Certified results come from the Nevada election office. See also polls vs results and closest races.
No verified poll in the last 14 days
The most recent verified poll in our dataset is Noble Predictive Insights, field dates ending : Aaron D. Ford 40%, Joe Lombardo 42%. It is listed below as history and is not used in a current average.
As of October 7, 2026, 1 reported poll was held back from this page until it can be checked against the original release.
Candidates · Ratings: Cook Toss-up, Sabato Lean R · Polls and sources · Nevada voting guide · Latest polls in all races
Governor races with recent verified polls: Texas (Abbott +1.0 in the 14-day average), Kansas (Masterson +1.5 in the 14-day average), Nebraska (Pillen +3.0 in the 14-day average).
Ratings are forecasters' judgments, not polls. About these ratings
Candidates
Aaron D. Ford
Nevada Attorney General
Joe Lombardo
Governor since 2023
Candidates recorded in this dataset; confirm the complete ballot with the election authority. Poll matchups may omit other candidates.
Current 14-day average
No recent public polls
No average is available in the 14-day window through November 3, 2026. Older polls are listed as historical data below.
Logged polls and sources
| Pollster / field dates | Sample / population | Aaron D. Ford % | Joe Lombardo % | Source / notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive InsightsSeptember 22, 2026 – September 26, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 708LV | 40 | 42 | Original source ↗NPI release: Sept 22-26, 708 LV (±3.68), Lombardo +2, Danielle Ford (I) 7, undecided 9. Toplines 42/40 as reported by Political Wire, Oct 6.Method: Opt-in online panel |
| Noble Predictive InsightsOctober 7, 2025 – October 13, 2025Outside the selected averaging window | 766RV | 37 | 40 | Original source ↗KTNV report: Oct 7-13, 2025, 766 RV (±3.54); Lombardo 40, Ford 37, undecided 23. |
Unverified and incomplete records stay visible and are explicitly excluded from the calculated average. We have not calculated an uncertainty interval for these averages. Source limitations.
Poll history
Trend of the 2 logged polls listed in the table above.
No recent public polling is logged for the governor's race in Nevada in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Historical polls remain listed below. The Cook Political Report rates it Toss-up; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean R.
- Nebraska Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- South Carolina Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- Texas Governor · Abbott +1.0 · one of the closest races
- Kansas Governor · Masterson +1.5 · one of the closest races
- 2026 Midterm Results: What the Numbers Show · Analysis
- How Recounts Work: Automatic Triggers, Requests and Audits · Analysis
Full candidate biographies, primary results and campaign history: Nevada Governor election on Wikipedia ↗. Official candidate lists and certified results come from the Nevada election office via vote.gov.
What do verified polls show in the 2026 Nevada governor race?
No recent public polling is logged for the governor's race in Nevada in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Historical polls remain listed below. The Cook Political Report rates it Toss-up; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean R. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
When is the Nevada governor election?
The general election is on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early and mail voting rules vary; check Nevada's rules on vote.gov.
What time do polls close in Nevada?
On November 3, polls in Nevada close at 10 p.m. ET. Anyone in line at closing time can still vote. See all states on our poll closing times page.
Where can I check the poll sources?
The logged poll table below links to original releases where a source is recorded. Only verified, complete polls are included in the calculated average.
Where can I follow live Nevada results?
Unofficial live results for this race will appear on this page and on our live results page on election night. Official results are certified by the Nevada election office.
Voting in Nevada
Election Day: . Confirm your registration, deadlines, voting options, polling location and sample ballot with official sources.
A 2026 deadline has not yet been independently verified here. Use the official authority link above for current dates; no date is estimated.
Sources checked 2026-10-07. Election rules and deadlines can change; confirm details with the authority.
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