Josh Shapiro vs. Stacy Garrity polls: Pennsylvania governor race 2026
Josh Shapiro vs. Stacy Garrity · Josh Shapiro (D)
Election Day: · Pennsylvania state guide
Josh Shapiro won by 22.2 points · called by Fox News at Nov 3, 8:00 PM ET
Lead at Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET: D +61.8 (14% counted) → now D +22.2
Unofficial results. Vote shares and calls from the Fox News Decision Desk results page ↗; this site does not project winners. Certified results come from the state election office.
Pennsylvania Governor result
Josh Shapiro (Democrat) won the Pennsylvania governor's race, according to a race call by Fox News at Nov 3, 8:00 PM ET. With 99% of the expected vote counted, Josh Shapiro had 60.5% to Stacy Garrity's 38.2%, a margin of 22.2 points.
The seat was held by a Democrat before the election.
No verified poll ended in the final two weeks of the campaign, so there is no polling average to compare with the result.
On election night, the first snapshot this site saved (Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET, 14% counted) showed the Democrat ahead by 61.8 points; the lead narrowed to 22.2 points in the latest count. Early returns often contain a different mix of ballots than later ones, so movement during the count is normal.
Analysis: After Election Day 2026: What the Canvass and Certification Steps Mean
Certified results come from the Pennsylvania election office. See also polls vs results and closest races.
No verified poll in the last 14 days
The most recent verified poll in our dataset is Quinnipiac, field dates ending : Josh Shapiro 59%, Stacy Garrity 34%. It is listed below as history and is not used in a current average.
1 logged poll is shown below but left out of averages under our methodology; the reason is listed with each poll.
Candidates · Ratings: Cook Solid D, Sabato Likely D · Polls and sources · Pennsylvania voting guide · Latest polls in all races
Governor races with recent verified polls: Texas (Abbott +1.0 in the 14-day average), Kansas (Masterson +1.5 in the 14-day average), Nebraska (Pillen +3.0 in the 14-day average).
Ratings are forecasters' judgments, not polls. About these ratings
Candidates
Josh Shapiro
Governor since 2023
Stacy Garrity
State Treasurer
Candidates recorded in this dataset; confirm the complete ballot with the election authority. Poll matchups may omit other candidates.
Current 14-day average
No recent public polls
No average is available in the 14-day window through November 3, 2026. Older polls are listed as historical data below.
Logged polls and sources
| Pollster / field dates | Sample / population | Josh Shapiro % | Stacy Garrity % | Source / notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QuinnipiacOctober 1, 2026 – October 5, 2026Outside the selected averaging window | 1159LV | 59 | 34 | Original source ↗Quinnipiac release confirms field dates, LV sample size and governor toplines.Method: Live-interviewer phone survey |
| NYT/SienaStart not recorded · ends September 24, 2026Source or essential poll metadata not verified | Sample not recordedLV | 58 | 38 | Original source ↗Siena's primary release confirms this result and likely-voter population. The release page does not provide complete field dates or sample size; this record remains excluded from averages pending those details. |
Unverified and incomplete records stay visible and are explicitly excluded from the calculated average. We have not calculated an uncertainty interval for these averages. Source limitations.
Poll history
Trend of the 2 logged polls listed in the table above.
No recent public polling is logged for the governor's race in Pennsylvania in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Historical polls remain listed below. The Cook Political Report rates it Solid D; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Likely D.
- Nebraska Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- South Carolina Senate · Tied · one of the closest races
- Texas Governor · Abbott +1.0 · one of the closest races
- Kansas Governor · Masterson +1.5 · one of the closest races
- After Election Day 2026: What the Canvass and Certification Steps Mean · Analysis
- When Will 2026 Election Results Be Known? · Analysis
Full candidate biographies, primary results and campaign history: Pennsylvania Governor election on Wikipedia ↗. Official candidate lists and certified results come from the Pennsylvania election office via vote.gov.
What do verified polls show in the 2026 Pennsylvania governor race?
No recent public polling is logged for the governor's race in Pennsylvania in the 14 days through November 3, 2026. Historical polls remain listed below. The Cook Political Report rates it Solid D; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Likely D. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
When is the Pennsylvania governor election?
The general election is on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early and mail voting rules vary; check Pennsylvania's rules on vote.gov.
What time do polls close in Pennsylvania?
On November 3, polls in Pennsylvania close at 8 p.m. ET. Anyone in line at closing time can still vote. See all states on our poll closing times page.
Where can I check the poll sources?
The logged poll table below links to original releases where a source is recorded. Only verified, complete polls are included in the calculated average.
Where can I follow live Pennsylvania results?
Unofficial live results for this race will appear on this page and on our live results page on election night. Official results are certified by the Pennsylvania election office.
Voting in Pennsylvania
Election Day: . Confirm your registration, deadlines, voting options, polling location and sample ballot with official sources.
Verified deadlines
- Voter registration deadline: · Official source ↗
- Mail-in / absentee ballot application deadline: · application to county · must be received by this date · Official source ↗County must receive it by 5 p.m.
- Mail-in / absentee ballot must arrive: · return to county · must be received by this date · Official source ↗By 8 p.m.; a postmark alone does not count.
Not verified in this guide: No statewide early voting period; ask your county about in-person mail ballot voting.
Sources checked 2026-10-07. Election rules and deadlines can change; confirm details with the authority.
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